Rite Aid Price Prediction and Hype Density Breakdown

RAD -- USA Stock  

USD 1.33  0.05  3.91%

We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Rite Aid Corporation which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. With Rite Aid hype-based prediction module you can estimate the value of Rite Aid Corporation from the prospective of Rite Aid response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. The module also provides analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Rite Aid over a specific investment horizon. Additionally take a look at Rite Aid Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

Rite Aid After-Hype Price Density Analysis

 Next price density 
 
Expected price to next headline

Rite Aid Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

September 20, 2018
1.33
Current Value
1.32
After-hype Price
Target Odds
  
10.47
Upside
Rite Aid is unusually risky asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Rite Aid is based on 1 month time horizon.

Rite Aid Next Price Analysis

Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.32% 3.05% 0.01%  0.08% 5 Events / Month5 Events / MonthIn about 5 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
1.331.320.75%
15,250% 

Rite Aid Hype Timeline

On 20 of September Rite Aid Corporation is traded for 1.33. This company has historical hype elasticity of -0.01 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.08. Rite Aid Corporation is estimated to decline in value after the next headline with price expected to drop to 1.32. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 15250.0%. The closing price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.75% where as daily expected return is at this time at -0.32%. The volatility of related hype on Rite Aid is about 1255.14% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 1.25. About 58.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.75. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Rite Aid Corporation last dividend was issued on 1999-10-14. This company had 2:1 split on 1998-02-03. Considering 30-days investment horizon, the next estimated press release will be in about 5 days.
Additionally take a look at Rite Aid Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Rite Aid Related Hype Analysis

Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
Vipshop Holdings Limited 0.06 5 per month 0.00 (0.18)  5.45 (6.69)  14.75 
Rite Aid Corporation(0.02) 5 per month 0.00 (0.20)  4.03 (3.10)  9.46 
Sally Beauty Holdings(0.15) 5 per month 0.00  0.60  3.83 (0.40)  4.51 
Sprouts Farmers Market 0.22 4 per month 0.48  0.27  3.90 (1.56)  6.73 
Spectrum Brands Holdings(2.53) 5 per month 0.00 (0.43)  2.00 (2.54)  4.96 
SUPERVALU 0.01 5 per month 0.02 (0.85)  0.16 (0.12)  0.47 
Sysco Corporation(0.1) 5 per month 0.00 (0.42)  0.71 (0.89)  2.34 
Target Corporation(0.59) 7 per month 0.47 (0.10)  1.07 (0.76)  2.01 
Walgreens Boots Alliance 0.78 3 per month 0.64 (0.0238)  2.39 (1.62)  2.73 
Weis Markets(0.11) 4 per month 0.00 (0.19)  3.59 (5.18)  8.63 

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Additionally take a look at Rite Aid Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolio or rebalance existing positions based on mean-variance optimization algorithm.
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