Rite Aid Price Prediction and Hype Density Breakdown

RAD -- USA Stock  

USD 1.92  0.05  2.54%

Macroaxis is not in business of monitoring Rite Aid headlines and social sentiment data; there are plenty of companies out there that do it quite successfully. However, we do analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Rite Aid Corporation brand which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. With Rite Aid hype-based prediction module you can estimate the value of Rite Aid Corporation from the prospective of Rite Aid response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. The module also provides analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Rite Aid over a specific investment horizon. Additionally take a look at Rite Aid Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

Rite Aid After-Hype Price Density Analysis

 Next price density 
 
Expected price to next headline

Rite Aid Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

June 22, 2018
1.92
Current Value
1.98
After-hype Price
Target Odds
  
8.61
Upside
Rite Aid is risky asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Rite Aid is based on 1 month time horizon.

Rite Aid Next Price Analysis

Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.78% 2.21% 0.06%  0.44% 5 Events / Month6 Events / MonthIn about 5 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
1.921.983.13%
2,762% 

Rite Aid Hype Timeline

On 22 of June Rite Aid Corporation is traded for 1.92. This company has historical hype elasticity of 0.06 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.44. Rite Aid Corporation is estimated to increase in value after the next headline with price going to jump to 1.98. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 2762.5%. The price escalation on the next news is estimated to be 3.13% where as daily expected return is at this time at 0.78%. The volatility of related hype on Rite Aid is about 391.84% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 2.36. The company has 3.39 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 211.8 . This implies that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. Considering 30-days investment horizon, the next estimated press release will be in about 5 days.
Additionally take a look at Rite Aid Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Rite Aid Related Hype Analysis

Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
Macys 0.16 4 per month 0.00  0.36  4.33 (2.11)  11.95 
Dollar General Corporation(0.06) 6 per month 3.32  0.06  2.03 (0.86)  10.02 
The Home Depot 1.59 6 per month 0.00  0.43  1.33 (0.74)  2.88 
Dollar Tree 1.26 3 per month 0.00 (0.09)  2.14 (1.64)  15.81 
Vipshop Holdings Limited(0.07) 5 per month 0.00 (0.16)  2.40 (1.89)  6.14 
Aarons 0.02 6 per month 0.00  0.45  2.29 (0.32)  4.52 
Best Buy Co 1.93 6 per month 2.61  0.06  2.72 (3.46)  7.29 
Big Lots 0.26 5 per month 2.12  0.07  4.42 (3.35)  8.49 
Barnes Noble 0.10 6 per month 0.00  0.29  3.85 (3.88)  12.75 
Fossil Group 0.45 6 per month 0.00  0.72  8.32 (1.82)  12.53 
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Additionally take a look at Rite Aid Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.