Summit Materials Stock Price Prediction
| SUM Stock | USD 38.31 0.16 0.42% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
55
Oversold | Overbought |
Summit Materials stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Summit Materials shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Summit Materials' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Summit Materials and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Summit Materials' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Summit Materials, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Summit Materials' stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.90) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.27) | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.94 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.45 | Wall Street Target Price 48.8 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Summit Materials based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Summit stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Summit Materials over a specific investment horizon. Using Summit Materials hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Summit Materials from the perspective of Summit Materials response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Summit Materials using Summit Materials' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Summit using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Summit Materials' stock price.
Summit Materials Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Summit Materials' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Summit. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Summit Materials stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Summit Materials may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Summit Materials and may potentially protect profits, hedge Summit Materials with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 36.8983 | Short Percent 0.0386 | Short Ratio 3.63 | Shares Short Prior Month 4.6 M | 50 Day MA 41.532 |
Summit Materials Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Summit Materials' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Summit. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Summit can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Summit Materials. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Summit Materials' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Summit Materials.
Summit Materials Implied Volatility | 111.67 |
Summit Materials' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Summit Materials stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Summit Materials' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Summit Materials stock will not fluctuate a lot when Summit Materials' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Summit Materials. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Summit Materials to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Summit because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Summit Materials after-hype prediction price | USD 38.56 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Summit contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Summit Materials will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 6.98% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Summit Materials trading at USD 38.31, that is roughly USD 2.67 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Summit Materials' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Summit Materials options at the current volatility level of 111.67%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Summit |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Summit Materials' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Summit Materials After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Summit Materials at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Summit Materials or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Summit Materials, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Summit Materials Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Summit Materials' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Summit Materials' historical news coverage. Summit Materials' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 36.58 and 40.54, respectively. We have considered Summit Materials' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Summit Materials is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Summit Materials is based on 3 months time horizon.
Summit Materials Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Summit Materials is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Summit Materials backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Summit Materials, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 1.98 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 11 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
38.31 | 38.56 | 0.23 |
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Summit Materials Hype Timeline
On the 19th of April Summit Materials is traded for 38.31. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.09, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.11. Summit is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 38.56 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 175.22%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.23%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.08%. The volatility of related hype on Summit Materials is about 145.23%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 38.42. The company reported the last year's revenue of 2.62 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 285.86 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 649.35 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Summit Materials Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Summit Materials Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Summit Materials' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Summit Materials' future price movements. Getting to know how Summit Materials' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Summit Materials may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MLM | Martin Marietta Materials | 7.91 | 9 per month | 0.91 | 0.17 | 2.25 | (1.75) | 4.78 | |
| VMC | Vulcan Materials | 2.61 | 10 per month | 0.94 | 0.11 | 1.92 | (1.65) | 6.88 | |
| USLM | United States Lime | (1.66) | 8 per month | 1.16 | 0.18 | 4.31 | (2.72) | 16.13 | |
| JHX | James Hardie Industries | (0.07) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.96 | (2.58) | 17.29 | |
| LOMA | Loma Negra Compania | 0.06 | 10 per month | 2.23 | 0 | 4.60 | (3.99) | 15.43 | |
| EXP | Eagle Materials | 3.41 | 10 per month | 1.22 | 0.15 | 2.89 | (2.23) | 6.59 | |
| CPAC | Cementos Pacasmayo SAA | (0.08) | 11 per month | 1.90 | 0.02 | 3.57 | (4.32) | 12.05 | |
| CRH | CRH PLC ADR | 0.09 | 11 per month | 1.10 | 0.10 | 2.28 | (1.92) | 8.88 | |
| MCEM | The Monarch Cement | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.45 | 0.15 | 2.60 | (1.33) | 8.12 |
Summit Materials Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Summit price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Summit using various technical indicators. When you analyze Summit charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Summit Materials Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Summit Materials stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Summit Materials, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Summit Materials based on analysis of Summit Materials hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Summit Materials's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Summit Materials's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 1.98E-4 | 2.28E-4 | 2.16E-4 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.42 | 1.28 | 0.82 |
Story Coverage note for Summit Materials
The number of cover stories for Summit Materials depends on current market conditions and Summit Materials' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Summit Materials is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Summit Materials' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Summit Materials Short Properties
Summit Materials' future price predictability will typically decrease when Summit Materials' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Summit Materials often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Summit Materials' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Summit Materials' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 119.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 374.2 M |
Check out Summit Materials Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Summit Stock, please use our How to Invest in Summit Materials guide.You can also try the FinTech Suite module to use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities.
Complementary Tools for Summit Stock analysis
When running Summit Materials' price analysis, check to measure Summit Materials' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Summit Materials is operating at the current time. Most of Summit Materials' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Summit Materials' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Summit Materials' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Summit Materials to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Summit Materials' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Summit Materials. If investors know Summit will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Summit Materials listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.90) | Earnings Share 2.39 | Revenue Per Share 22.004 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.195 | Return On Assets 0.0438 |
The market value of Summit Materials is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Summit that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Summit Materials' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Summit Materials' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Summit Materials' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Summit Materials' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Summit Materials' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Summit Materials is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Summit Materials' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.