Toronto Dominion Bank Stock Price Prediction
| TD Stock | USD 56.82 0.69 1.23% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
48
Oversold | Overbought |
Toronto Dominion Bank stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Toronto Dominion shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Toronto Dominion's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Toronto Dominion and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Toronto Dominion's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Toronto Dominion Bank, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Toronto Dominion's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.888 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.67 | EPS Estimate Next Year 6.1 | Wall Street Target Price 64.98 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 1.39 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Toronto Dominion based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Toronto stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Toronto Dominion over a specific investment horizon. Using Toronto Dominion hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Toronto Dominion Bank from the perspective of Toronto Dominion response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Toronto Dominion using Toronto Dominion's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Toronto using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Toronto Dominion's stock price.
Toronto Dominion Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Toronto Dominion's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Toronto. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Toronto Dominion stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Toronto Dominion may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Toronto Dominion and may potentially protect profits, hedge Toronto Dominion with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 60.764 | Short Percent 0.004 | Short Ratio 4.4 | Shares Short Prior Month 10.4 M | 50 Day MA 59.453 |
Toronto Dominion Bank Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Toronto Dominion's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Toronto. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Toronto can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Toronto Dominion Bank. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Toronto Dominion's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Toronto Dominion.
Toronto Dominion Implied Volatility | 82.42 |
Toronto Dominion's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Toronto Dominion Bank stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Toronto Dominion's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Toronto Dominion stock will not fluctuate a lot when Toronto Dominion's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Toronto Dominion. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Toronto Dominion to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Toronto because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Toronto Dominion after-hype prediction price | USD 56.82 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Toronto contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Toronto Dominion Bank will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 5.15% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Toronto Dominion trading at USD 56.82, that is roughly USD 2.93 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Toronto Dominion's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Toronto Dominion Bank options at the current volatility level of 82.42%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Toronto |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Toronto Dominion's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Toronto Dominion After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Toronto Dominion at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Toronto Dominion or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Toronto Dominion, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Toronto Dominion Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Toronto Dominion's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Toronto Dominion's historical news coverage. Toronto Dominion's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 55.84 and 57.80, respectively. We have considered Toronto Dominion's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Toronto Dominion is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Toronto Dominion Bank is based on 3 months time horizon.
Toronto Dominion Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Toronto Dominion is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Toronto Dominion backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Toronto Dominion, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.07 | 0.98 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
56.82 | 56.82 | 0.00 |
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Toronto Dominion Hype Timeline
As of April 18, 2024 Toronto Dominion Bank is listed for 56.82. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.1, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Toronto is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 67.12%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.07%. %. The volatility of related hype on Toronto Dominion is about 296.97%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 56.80. About 59.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.35. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Toronto Dominion Bank has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.09. The entity last dividend was issued on the 8th of April 2024. The firm had 2:1 split on the 3rd of February 2014. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Toronto Dominion Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Toronto Dominion Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Toronto Dominion's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Toronto Dominion's future price movements. Getting to know how Toronto Dominion's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Toronto Dominion may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BMO | Bank of Montreal | (0.76) | 13 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.15 | (1.89) | 6.02 | |
| CM | Canadian Imperial Bank | (1.06) | 12 per month | 0.97 | 0 | 1.61 | (1.49) | 4.78 | |
| BNS | Bank of Nova | (0.81) | 12 per month | 1.22 | (0.03) | 1.60 | (1.59) | 5.82 | |
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase Co | (0.68) | 8 per month | 1.32 | 0.05 | 1.72 | (1.14) | 8.65 | |
| RY | Royal Bank of | (0.55) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 1.35 | (1.68) | 4.60 | |
| BAC | Bank of America | 0.30 | 6 per month | 1.24 | 0.05 | 2.07 | (2.26) | 7.07 | |
| C | Citigroup | 0.06 | 6 per month | 1.10 | 0.09 | 2.28 | (1.88) | 8.13 | |
| WFC | Wells Fargo | 0.77 | 8 per month | 0.65 | 0.18 | 1.72 | (1.32) | 8.55 | |
| NU | Nu Holdings | (0.24) | 10 per month | 1.72 | 0.09 | 4.34 | (2.73) | 9.96 |
Toronto Dominion Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Toronto price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Toronto using various technical indicators. When you analyze Toronto charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Toronto Dominion Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Toronto Dominion stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Toronto Dominion Bank, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Toronto Dominion based on analysis of Toronto Dominion hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Toronto Dominion's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Toronto Dominion's related companies. | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0344 | 0.0413 | 0.0372 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.46 | 2.66 | 2.4 |
Story Coverage note for Toronto Dominion
The number of cover stories for Toronto Dominion depends on current market conditions and Toronto Dominion's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Toronto Dominion is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Toronto Dominion's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Toronto Dominion Short Properties
Toronto Dominion's future price predictability will typically decrease when Toronto Dominion's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Toronto Dominion Bank often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Toronto Dominion's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Toronto Dominion's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.8 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 138.2 B |
Check out Toronto Dominion Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Toronto Dominion Bank information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Toronto Dominion's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Idea Breakdown module to analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes.
Complementary Tools for Toronto Stock analysis
When running Toronto Dominion's price analysis, check to measure Toronto Dominion's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Toronto Dominion is operating at the current time. Most of Toronto Dominion's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Toronto Dominion's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Toronto Dominion's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Toronto Dominion to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Toronto Dominion's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Toronto Dominion. If investors know Toronto will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Toronto Dominion listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.888 | Dividend Share 3.9 | Earnings Share 4.6 | Revenue Per Share 27.824 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.104 |
The market value of Toronto Dominion Bank is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Toronto that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Toronto Dominion's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Toronto Dominion's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Toronto Dominion's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Toronto Dominion's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Toronto Dominion's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Toronto Dominion is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Toronto Dominion's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.