Telefonica Sa Adr Stock Price Prediction

TEF Stock  USD 4.41  0.04  0.92%   
The relative strength index (RSI) of Telefonica's the stock price is roughly 68. This usually implies that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of 28th of March 2024. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Telefonica, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

68

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Telefonica SA ADR stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Telefonica shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Telefonica's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Telefonica and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Telefonica's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Telefonica SA ADR, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Telefonica's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.105
Wall Street Target Price
4.97
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.072
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Telefonica based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Telefonica stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Telefonica over a specific investment horizon. Using Telefonica hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Telefonica SA ADR from the perspective of Telefonica response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Telefonica using Telefonica's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Telefonica using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Telefonica's stock price.

Telefonica Implied Volatility

    
  0.0  
Telefonica's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Telefonica SA ADR stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Telefonica's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Telefonica stock will not fluctuate a lot when Telefonica's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Telefonica. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Telefonica to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Telefonica because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Telefonica after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 4.41  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Telefonica Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Telefonica's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
3.544.515.48
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
3.364.335.29
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
4.324.755.27
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Telefonica. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Telefonica's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Telefonica's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Telefonica SA ADR.

Telefonica After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Telefonica at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Telefonica or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Telefonica, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Telefonica Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Telefonica's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Telefonica's historical news coverage. Telefonica's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 3.44 and 5.38, respectively. We have considered Telefonica's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
4.41
4.41
After-hype Price
5.38
Upside
Telefonica is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Telefonica SA ADR is based on 3 months time horizon.

Telefonica Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Telefonica is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Telefonica backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Telefonica, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.21 
0.97
 0.00  
  0.01 
9 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
4.41
4.41
0.00 
9,700  
Notes

Telefonica Hype Timeline

On the 28th of March Telefonica SA ADR is traded for 4.41. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.01. Telefonica is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.21%. %. The volatility of related hype on Telefonica is about 2586.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.42. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.06. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Telefonica SA ADR has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.14. The entity recorded a loss per share of 0.22. The firm last dividend was issued on the 12th of December 2023. Telefonica had 3:1 split on the 21st of January 2011. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days.
Check out Telefonica Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Telefonica Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Telefonica's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Telefonica's future price movements. Getting to know how Telefonica rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Telefonica may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
UDMYUdemy Inc(0.16)12 per month 0.00 (0.16) 2.37 (3.80) 25.09 
SCHLScholastic 0.49 9 per month 1.60 (0.08) 2.82 (2.65) 7.00 
PSOPearson PLC ADR(0.17)12 per month 0.90 (0) 2.12 (1.57) 6.40 
ACCOAcco Brands(0.07)7 per month 2.82 (0.05) 3.07 (3.44) 17.28 
COE51Talk Online Education(0.12)10 per month 2.51 (0.02) 5.35 (4.76) 16.05 
BRIDBridgford Foods 0.36 6 per month 1.33 (0.04) 2.64 (2.44) 9.17 
ZNAEZane Interactive Publishing 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
AXRAMREP(0.03)8 per month 2.67  0.01  4.49 (4.68) 16.20 

Telefonica Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Telefonica price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Telefonica using various technical indicators. When you analyze Telefonica charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Telefonica Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Telefonica stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Telefonica SA ADR, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Telefonica based on analysis of Telefonica hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Telefonica's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Telefonica's related companies.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.170.07270.08460.0469
Price To Sales Ratio0.560.480.50.47

Story Coverage note for Telefonica

The number of cover stories for Telefonica depends on current market conditions and Telefonica's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Telefonica is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Telefonica's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Telefonica Short Properties

Telefonica's future price predictability will typically decrease when Telefonica's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Telefonica SA ADR often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Telefonica's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Telefonica's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding5.7 B
Cash And Short Term Investments7.7 B
When determining whether Telefonica SA ADR is a strong investment it is important to analyze Telefonica's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Telefonica's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Telefonica Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Telefonica Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Telefonica SA ADR information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Telefonica's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.

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When running Telefonica's price analysis, check to measure Telefonica's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Telefonica is operating at the current time. Most of Telefonica's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Telefonica's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Telefonica's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Telefonica to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Telefonica's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Telefonica. If investors know Telefonica will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Telefonica listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.105
Dividend Share
0.3
Earnings Share
(0.22)
Revenue Per Share
7.172
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.072
The market value of Telefonica SA ADR is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Telefonica that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Telefonica's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Telefonica's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Telefonica's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Telefonica's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Telefonica's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Telefonica is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Telefonica's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.