The Hanover Insurance Stock Price Prediction
| THG Stock | USD 127.21 0.60 0.47% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
47
Oversold | Overbought |
Hanover Insurance stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Hanover Insurance shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Hanover Insurance's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Hanover Insurance and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Hanover Insurance's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with The Hanover Insurance, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Hanover Insurance's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 16.105 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.86 | EPS Estimate Current Year 10.38 | EPS Estimate Next Year 13.26 | Wall Street Target Price 149.71 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Hanover Insurance based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Hanover stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Hanover Insurance over a specific investment horizon. Using Hanover Insurance hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of The Hanover Insurance from the perspective of Hanover Insurance response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Hanover Insurance using Hanover Insurance's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Hanover using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Hanover Insurance's stock price.
Hanover Insurance Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Hanover Insurance's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Hanover. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Hanover Insurance stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Hanover Insurance may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Hanover Insurance and may potentially protect profits, hedge Hanover Insurance with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 120.2765 | Short Percent 0.0113 | Short Ratio 2.06 | Shares Short Prior Month 434.1 K | 50 Day MA 131.1822 |
Hanover Insurance Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Hanover Insurance's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Hanover. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Hanover can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around The Hanover Insurance. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Hanover Insurance's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Hanover Insurance.
Hanover Insurance Implied Volatility | 0.0 |
Hanover Insurance's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of The Hanover Insurance stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Hanover Insurance's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Hanover Insurance stock will not fluctuate a lot when Hanover Insurance's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Hanover Insurance. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Hanover Insurance to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Hanover because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Hanover Insurance after-hype prediction price | USD 127.23 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Hanover |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Hanover Insurance's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hanover Insurance After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Hanover Insurance at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Hanover Insurance or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Hanover Insurance, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Hanover Insurance Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Hanover Insurance's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Hanover Insurance's historical news coverage. Hanover Insurance's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 126.07 and 128.39, respectively. We have considered Hanover Insurance's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Hanover Insurance is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Hanover Insurance is based on 3 months time horizon.
Hanover Insurance Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Hanover Insurance is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Hanover Insurance backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Hanover Insurance, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 1.16 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 10 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
127.21 | 127.23 | 0.02 |
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Hanover Insurance Hype Timeline
On the 19th of April Hanover Insurance is traded for 127.21. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.06. Hanover is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 127.23 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price rise on the next news is projected to be 0.02%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.04%. The volatility of related hype on Hanover Insurance is about 76.57%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 127.15. The company reported the last year's revenue of 5.99 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 33.5 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 752 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Hanover Insurance Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Hanover Insurance Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Hanover Insurance's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Hanover Insurance's future price movements. Getting to know how Hanover Insurance's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Hanover Insurance may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hanover Insurance Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Hanover price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Hanover using various technical indicators. When you analyze Hanover charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Hanover Insurance Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Hanover Insurance stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as The Hanover Insurance, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Hanover Insurance based on analysis of Hanover Insurance hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Hanover Insurance's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Hanover Insurance's related companies. | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0217 | 0.027 | 0.014 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.9 | 0.72 | 0.6 |
Story Coverage note for Hanover Insurance
The number of cover stories for Hanover Insurance depends on current market conditions and Hanover Insurance's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Hanover Insurance is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Hanover Insurance's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Hanover Insurance Short Properties
Hanover Insurance's future price predictability will typically decrease when Hanover Insurance's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of The Hanover Insurance often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Hanover Insurance's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Hanover Insurance's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 36.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.3 B |
Check out Hanover Insurance Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Hanover Insurance information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Hanover Insurance's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.
Complementary Tools for Hanover Stock analysis
When running Hanover Insurance's price analysis, check to measure Hanover Insurance's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Hanover Insurance is operating at the current time. Most of Hanover Insurance's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Hanover Insurance's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Hanover Insurance's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Hanover Insurance to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Hanover Insurance's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Hanover Insurance. If investors know Hanover will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Hanover Insurance listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 16.105 | Dividend Share 3.28 | Earnings Share 0.93 | Revenue Per Share 167.885 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.034 |
The market value of Hanover Insurance is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Hanover that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Hanover Insurance's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Hanover Insurance's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Hanover Insurance's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Hanover Insurance's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Hanover Insurance's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Hanover Insurance is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Hanover Insurance's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.