Trinity Industries Stock Price Prediction

TRN Stock  USD 28.04  0.60  2.19%   
As of today, The relative strength index (RSI) of Trinity Industries' share price is at 53. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Trinity Industries, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

53

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Trinity Industries stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Trinity Industries shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Trinity Industries' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Trinity Industries and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Trinity Industries' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Trinity Industries, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Trinity Industries' stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.985
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.42
EPS Estimate Current Year
1.42
EPS Estimate Next Year
1.97
Wall Street Target Price
29.33
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Trinity Industries based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Trinity stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Trinity Industries over a specific investment horizon. Using Trinity Industries hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Trinity Industries from the perspective of Trinity Industries response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Trinity Industries using Trinity Industries' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Trinity using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Trinity Industries' stock price.

Trinity Industries Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Trinity Industries' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Trinity. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Trinity Industries stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Trinity Industries may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Trinity Industries and may potentially protect profits, hedge Trinity Industries with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
24.8927
Short Percent
0.0392
Short Ratio
3.68
Shares Short Prior Month
2.2 M
50 Day MA
25.681

Trinity Industries Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Trinity Industries' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Trinity. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Trinity can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Trinity Industries. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Trinity Industries' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Trinity Industries.

Trinity Industries Implied Volatility

    
  28.56  
Trinity Industries' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Trinity Industries stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Trinity Industries' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Trinity Industries stock will not fluctuate a lot when Trinity Industries' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Trinity Industries. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Trinity Industries to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Trinity because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Trinity Industries after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 28.07  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Trinity contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Trinity Industries will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.79% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Trinity Industries trading at USD 28.04, that is roughly USD 0.5 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Trinity Industries' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Trinity Industries options at the current volatility level of 28.56%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out Trinity Industries Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Trinity Stock, please use our How to Invest in Trinity Industries guide.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Trinity Industries' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
26.7228.6230.52
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
26.5628.4630.35
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
27.5330.2533.58
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.140.230.30
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Trinity Industries. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Trinity Industries' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Trinity Industries' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Trinity Industries.

Trinity Industries After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Trinity Industries at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Trinity Industries or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Trinity Industries, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Trinity Industries Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Trinity Industries' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Trinity Industries' historical news coverage. Trinity Industries' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 26.17 and 29.97, respectively. We have considered Trinity Industries' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
28.04
28.07
After-hype Price
29.97
Upside
Trinity Industries is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Trinity Industries is based on 3 months time horizon.

Trinity Industries Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Trinity Industries is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Trinity Industries backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Trinity Industries, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.12 
1.90
  0.03 
  0.07 
9 Events / Month
5 Events / Month
In about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
28.04
28.07
0.11 
730.77  
Notes

Trinity Industries Hype Timeline

On the 28th of March Trinity Industries is traded for 28.04. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.07. Trinity is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 28.07 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.11%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.12%. The volatility of related hype on Trinity Industries is about 317.53%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 28.11. The company reported the last year's revenue of 2.98 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 140 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 367.7 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 9 days.
Check out Trinity Industries Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Trinity Stock, please use our How to Invest in Trinity Industries guide.

Trinity Industries Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Trinity Industries' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Trinity Industries' future price movements. Getting to know how Trinity Industries rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Trinity Industries may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
NNBRNN Inc 0.20 10 per month 4.30  0.10  8.26 (6.32) 29.67 
CYDChina Yuchai International 0.13 5 per month 1.36 (0.06) 2.68 (2.25) 8.71 
STRCWSarcos Technology And 0.20 4 per month 19.46  0.19  81.48 (36.92) 350.00 
FIPFTAI Infrastructure(0.06)7 per month 2.54  0.16  5.56 (4.29) 13.98 
GFFGriffon 0.98 12 per month 1.49  0.11  2.02 (2.40) 15.36 
FSTRLB Foster 0.74 8 per month 2.04  0.15  3.93 (2.78) 13.49 
HONHoneywell International 2.59 8 per month 1.07 (0.13) 1.40 (1.69) 3.85 
IGCIndia Globalization Capital 0.01 9 per month 2.49  0.09  11.11 (3.57) 27.19 

Trinity Industries Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Trinity price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Trinity using various technical indicators. When you analyze Trinity charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Trinity Industries Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Trinity Industries stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Trinity Industries, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Trinity Industries based on analysis of Trinity Industries hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Trinity Industries's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Trinity Industries's related companies.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.02890.03180.03980.0297
Price To Sales Ratio2.021.220.720.48

Story Coverage note for Trinity Industries

The number of cover stories for Trinity Industries depends on current market conditions and Trinity Industries' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Trinity Industries is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Trinity Industries' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Trinity Industries Short Properties

Trinity Industries' future price predictability will typically decrease when Trinity Industries' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Trinity Industries often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Trinity Industries' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Trinity Industries' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding83.4 M
Cash And Short Term Investments105.7 M
When determining whether Trinity Industries offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Trinity Industries' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Trinity Industries Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Trinity Industries Stock:
Check out Trinity Industries Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Trinity Stock, please use our How to Invest in Trinity Industries guide.
You can also try the CEOs Directory module to screen CEOs from public companies around the world.

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Is Trinity Industries' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Trinity Industries. If investors know Trinity will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Trinity Industries listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.985
Dividend Share
1.06
Earnings Share
1.43
Revenue Per Share
36.74
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.35
The market value of Trinity Industries is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Trinity that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Trinity Industries' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Trinity Industries' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Trinity Industries' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Trinity Industries' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Trinity Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Trinity Industries is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Trinity Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.