Unitedhealth Group Incorporated Stock Price Prediction
| UNH Stock | USD 487.40 1.22 0.25% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
28
Oversold | Overbought |
UnitedHealth Group stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of UnitedHealth Group shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of UnitedHealth Group's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of UnitedHealth Group and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from UnitedHealth Group's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with UnitedHealth Group Incorporated, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting UnitedHealth Group's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.16 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 6.82 | EPS Estimate Current Year 27.62 | EPS Estimate Next Year 31.06 | Wall Street Target Price 569.32 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of UnitedHealth Group based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The UnitedHealth stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on UnitedHealth Group over a specific investment horizon. Using UnitedHealth Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated from the perspective of UnitedHealth Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards UnitedHealth Group using UnitedHealth Group's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards UnitedHealth using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of UnitedHealth Group's stock price.
UnitedHealth Group Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in UnitedHealth Group's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards UnitedHealth. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of UnitedHealth Group stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long UnitedHealth Group may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about UnitedHealth Group and may potentially protect profits, hedge UnitedHealth Group with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 508.3348 | Short Percent 0.0084 | Short Ratio 1.73 | Shares Short Prior Month 6.7 M | 50 Day MA 487.8608 |
UnitedHealth Group Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to UnitedHealth Group's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in UnitedHealth. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding UnitedHealth can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around UnitedHealth Group Incorporated. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of UnitedHealth Group's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about UnitedHealth Group.
UnitedHealth Group Implied Volatility | 37.67 |
UnitedHealth Group's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if UnitedHealth Group's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that UnitedHealth Group stock will not fluctuate a lot when UnitedHealth Group's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in UnitedHealth Group. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in UnitedHealth Group to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying UnitedHealth because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
UnitedHealth Group after-hype prediction price | USD 486.18 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current UnitedHealth contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that UnitedHealth Group Incorporated will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.35% per day over the life of the 2024-04-26 option contract. With UnitedHealth Group trading at USD 487.4, that is roughly USD 11.48 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating UnitedHealth Group's daily price movement you should consider acquiring UnitedHealth Group Incorporated options at the current volatility level of 37.67%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
UnitedHealth |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of UnitedHealth Group's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
UnitedHealth Group After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of UnitedHealth Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in UnitedHealth Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of UnitedHealth Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
UnitedHealth Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting UnitedHealth Group's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on UnitedHealth Group's historical news coverage. UnitedHealth Group's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 484.60 and 487.76, respectively. We have considered UnitedHealth Group's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
UnitedHealth Group is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of UnitedHealth Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
UnitedHealth Group Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as UnitedHealth Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading UnitedHealth Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with UnitedHealth Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.00 | 1.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
487.40 | 486.18 | 0.00 |
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UnitedHealth Group Hype Timeline
On the 24th of April UnitedHealth Group is traded for 487.40. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. UnitedHealth is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 20.05%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on UnitedHealth Group is about 142.34%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 487.40. About 90.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of UnitedHealth Group was at this time reported as 100.18. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.24. UnitedHealth Group recorded earning per share (EPS) of 16.38. The entity last dividend was issued on the 8th of March 2024. The firm had 2:1 split on the 31st of May 2005. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out UnitedHealth Group Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.UnitedHealth Group Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to UnitedHealth Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict UnitedHealth Group's future price movements. Getting to know how UnitedHealth Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how UnitedHealth Group may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HUM | Humana Inc | 3.83 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 1.87 | (3.18) | 16.38 | |
| CVS | CVS Health Corp | (0.68) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 1.65 | (1.99) | 10.33 | |
| ALHC | Alignment Healthcare LLC | 0.18 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 5.15 | (6.94) | 29.64 |
UnitedHealth Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine UnitedHealth price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for UnitedHealth using various technical indicators. When you analyze UnitedHealth charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About UnitedHealth Group Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of UnitedHealth Group stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as UnitedHealth Group Incorporated, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of UnitedHealth Group based on analysis of UnitedHealth Group hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to UnitedHealth Group's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to UnitedHealth Group's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0112 | 0.0121 | 0.0145 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.66 | 1.54 | 1.17 |
Story Coverage note for UnitedHealth Group
The number of cover stories for UnitedHealth Group depends on current market conditions and UnitedHealth Group's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that UnitedHealth Group is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about UnitedHealth Group's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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UnitedHealth Group Short Properties
UnitedHealth Group's future price predictability will typically decrease when UnitedHealth Group's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential UnitedHealth Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. UnitedHealth Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 938 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 29.6 B |
Check out UnitedHealth Group Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.
Complementary Tools for UnitedHealth Stock analysis
When running UnitedHealth Group's price analysis, check to measure UnitedHealth Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy UnitedHealth Group is operating at the current time. Most of UnitedHealth Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of UnitedHealth Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move UnitedHealth Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of UnitedHealth Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is UnitedHealth Group's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of UnitedHealth Group. If investors know UnitedHealth will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about UnitedHealth Group listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.16 | Dividend Share 7.52 | Earnings Share 16.38 | Revenue Per Share 411.257 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.086 |
The market value of UnitedHealth Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of UnitedHealth that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of UnitedHealth Group's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is UnitedHealth Group's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because UnitedHealth Group's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect UnitedHealth Group's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between UnitedHealth Group's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if UnitedHealth Group is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, UnitedHealth Group's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.