United Parcel Price Prediction and Hype Density Breakdown

UPS -- USA Stock  

USD 118.49  0.63  0.53%

We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with United Parcel Service which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. With United Parcel hype-based prediction module you can estimate the value of United Parcel Service from the prospective of United Parcel response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. The module also provides analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on United Parcel over a specific investment horizon. Also please take a look at United Parcel Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

United Parcel After-Hype Price Density Analysis

 Next price density 
 
Expected price to next headline

United Parcel Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

September 24, 2018
118.49
Current Value
Downside
116.23
119.20
After-hype Price
Target Odds
  
122.17
Upside
United Parcel is not too risky asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of United Parcel Service is based on 1 month time horizon.

United Parcel Next Price Analysis

Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.22% 0.93% 0.14%  0.12% 5 Events / Month5 Events / MonthIn about 5 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
118.49119.200.07%
143.08% 

United Parcel Hype Timeline

On 24 of September United Parcel Service is traded for 118.49. This company has historical hype elasticity of 0.14 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.12. United Parcel Service is estimated to increase in value after the next headline with price going to jump to 119.2. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 143.08%. The price escalation on the next news is estimated to be 0.07% where as daily expected return is at this time at -0.22%. The volatility of related hype on United Parcel is about 163.73% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 118.61. The company reported last year revenue of 69 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 5.19 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 14.85 B. Considering 30-days investment horizon, the next estimated press release will be in about 5 days.
Also please take a look at United Parcel Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

United Parcel Related Hype Analysis

Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
Ryder System 0.53 4 per month 0.00 (0.22)  3.25 (4.01)  7.43 
Werner Enterprises(0.45) 3 per month 2.03 (0.06)  3.66 (3.01)  13.68 
United Parcel Service 0.65 5 per month 0.00 (0.31)  1.10 (1.09)  4.54 
AMERCO 4.79 4 per month 0.00 (0.52)  0.75 (2.23)  3.17 
Seaspan Corporation(0.06) 1 per month 0.00 (0.28)  2.58 (1.40)  13.59 
United Continental Holdings(1.10) 4 per month 0.47  0.0425  1.17 (1.20)  2.87 
Union Pacific Corporation 0.53 3 per month 0.00  0.21  1.92 (0.56)  3.61 
Sino Global Shipping America Ltd(0.03) 1 per month 0.73 (0.0327)  1.87 (1.82)  3.70 
Caterpillar 0.28 5 per month 0.00  0.32  2.86 (0.73)  4.05 
Microsoft Corporation 0.54 5 per month 0.90  0.09  1.70 (1.57)  3.99 

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Also please take a look at United Parcel Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..
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