United States Price Prediction

United States Oil -- USA Etf  

USD 11.49  0.16  1.41%

Macroaxis is not in business of monitoring United States headlines and social sentiment data; there are plenty of companies out there that do it quite successfully. However, we do analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with United States Oil brand which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. With United States hype-based prediction module you can estimate the value of United States Oil from the prospective of United States response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. The module also provides analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on United States over a specific investment horizon. Also please take a look at United States Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

United States Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

 Next price density 
 
Expected price to next headline
December 11, 2017
11.49
Current Value
Downside upside
11.33
After-hype Price
Target Price Odds
 Above  Below  
15.68
Upside
Upside upside
United States is not very risky asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of United States Oil is based on 1 month time horizon.

United States Hype Analysis

Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.06% 1.49% 0.00%  0.00% 1 Events / Month1 Events / MonthVery soon
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
11.4911.330.00%
2,483% 

United States Hype Timeline

On 11 of December United States Oil is traded for  11.49 . This company stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. United States Oil is estimated not to react to the next headline with price going to stay at about the same level and average media hype impact volatility of 2483.33%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small where as daily expected return is at this time at 0.06%. The volatility of relative hype elasticity to United States is about 44700.0%%. The volatility of related hype on United States is about 44700.0% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 11.49. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 0.68. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. United States Oil had not issued any dividends in recent years. Considering 30-days investment horizon, the next estimated press release will be very soon.
Also please take a look at United States Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

United States Related Hype Analysis

Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Expected
Short fall
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
Realty Income Corporation(0.3) 2 per month 0.00 (0.34)  0.00  0.75 (0.76)  1.69 
Diamond Hill Investment Group Inc 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.24)  0.00  1.14 (1.61)  3.42 
AllianceBernstein Holding L P 0.00 0 per month 0.84  0.028 (1)  1.61 (1.2)  3.97 
Associated Capital Group Inc 0.15 1 per month 0.00 (0.14)  0.00  2.02 (2.03)  5.46 
Arlington Asset Investment Corp(0.02) 1 per month 0.00  0.37 (0.75)  1.24 (0.44)  2.08 
The Blackstone Group L P 0.15 2 per month 0.00 (0.22)  0.00  1.68 (1.18)  3.28