United States Risk Analysis

United States 3x Oil Fund -- USA Etf  

USD 29.02  1.12  3.72%

We consider United States not very volatile. United States 3x owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e. Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0387 which indicates United States 3x had 0.0387% of return per unit of risk over the last 1 month. Our philosophy towards measuring volatility of a etf is to use all available market data together with company specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-one technical indicators for United States 3x Oil Fund which you can use to evaluate future volatility of the etf. Please validate United States Semi Deviation of 3.68, Coefficient Of Variation of 2527.15 and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0197 to confirm if risk estimate we provide are consistent with the epected return of 0.1571%.
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

United States Market Sensitivity

As returns on market increase, United States returns are expected to increase less than the market. However during bear market, the loss on holding United States will be expected to be smaller as well.
One Month Beta |Analyze United States 3x Demand Trend
Check current 30 days United States correlation with market (DOW)
β = 0.8291
United States Small BetaUnited States 3x Beta Legend

Projected Return Density Against Market

Given the investment horizon of 30 days, United States has beta of 0.8291 . This entails as returns on market go up, United States average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding United States 3x Oil Fund will be expected to be much smaller as well. Moreover, United States 3x Oil Fund has an alpha of 0.0381 implying that it can potentially generate 0.0381% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Predicted Return Density 
      Returns 
Given the investment horizon of 30 days, the coefficient of variation of United States is 2581.29. The daily returns are destributed with a variance of 16.45 and standard deviation of 4.06. The mean deviation of United States 3x Oil Fund is currently at 2.77. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (DOW) has volatility of 0.26
α
Alpha over DOW
= 0.0381 
βBeta against DOW= 0.83 
σ
Overall volatility
= 4.06 
 IrInformation ratio = 0.0034 

Actual Return Volatility

United States 3x Oil Fund inherits 4.0553% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 30 days horizon. DOW inherits 0.2355% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 30 days horizon.
 Performance (%) 
      Timeline 

Market Risk Breakdown

United States Volatility Factors

30 Days Market Risk

Not very volatile

Chance of Distress in 24 months

Below average

30 Days Economic Sensitivity

Follows market closely

Largest Trends

United States Largest Period Trend

Investment Outlook

United States Investment Opportunity
United States 3x Oil Fund has a volatility of 4.06 and is 16.92 times more volatile than DOW. 38% of all equities and portfolios are less risky than United States. Compared to the overall equity markets, volatility of historical daily returns of United States 3x Oil Fund is lower than 38 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 30 days. Use United States 3x Oil Fund to protect against small markets fluctuations. The etf experiences unexpected downward movement. The market is reacting to new fundamentals. Check odds of United States to be traded at $27.86 in 30 days. As returns on market increase, United States returns are expected to increase less than the market. However during bear market, the loss on holding United States will be expected to be smaller as well.

United States correlation with market

Significant diversification
Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding United States 3x Oil Fund and equity matching DJI index in the same portfolio.