United States Risk Analysis

United States 3x Oil Fund -- USA Etf  

USD 29.64  0.48  1.61%

Macroaxis considers United States not very volatile given 1 month investment horizon. United States 3x owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e. Sharpe Ratio) of 0.095 which indicates United States 3x had 0.095% of return per unit of risk over the last 1 month. Our philosophy towards measuring volatility of a etf is to use all available market data together with company specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for United States 3x Oil Fund which you can use to evaluate future volatility of the etf. Please operate United States Semi Deviation of 3.35, Coefficient Of Variation of 917.75 and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0344 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations.
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

United States Market Sensitivity

As returns on market increase, returns on owning United States are expected to decrease by larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoil, United States is expected to significantly outperform it.
One Month Beta |Analyze United States 3x Demand Trend
Check current 30 days United States correlation with market (DOW)
β = -2.8954
United States Large Negative BetaUnited States 3x Beta Legend

Projected Return Density Against Market

Given the investment horizon of 30 days, United States 3x Oil Fund has beta of -2.8954 . This entails as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding United States 3x Oil Fund are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, United States is expected to outperform its benchmark. Moreover, United States 3x Oil Fund has an alpha of 0.8019 implying that it can potentially generate 0.8019% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Predicted Return Density 
      Returns 
Given the investment horizon of 30 days, the coefficient of variation of United States is 1052.51. The daily returns are destributed with a variance of 17.45 and standard deviation of 4.18. The mean deviation of United States 3x Oil Fund is currently at 3.06. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (DOW) has volatility of 0.23
α
Alpha over DOW
= 0.8 
βBeta against DOW=(2.9) 
σ
Overall volatility
= 4.18 
 IrInformation ratio = 0.0768 

Actual Return Volatility

United States 3x Oil Fund inherits 4.1779% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 30 days horizon. DOW inherits 0.2342% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 30 days horizon.
 Performance (%) 
      Timeline 

Market Risk Breakdown

United States Volatility Factors

30 Days Market Risk

Not very volatile

Chance of Distress in 24 months

Below average

30 Days Economic Sensitivity

Completely opposite to market

Largest Trends

United States Largest Period Trend

Investment Outlook

United States Investment Opportunity
United States 3x Oil Fund has a volatility of 4.18 and is 18.17 times more volatile than DOW. 39% of all equities and portfolios are less risky than United States. Compared to the overall equity markets, volatility of historical daily returns of United States 3x Oil Fund is lower than 39 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 30 days. Use United States 3x Oil Fund to protect against small markets fluctuations. The etf experiences somewhat bearish sentiment, but market may correct it shortly. Check odds of United States to be traded at $28.75 in 30 days. As returns on market increase, returns on owning United States are expected to decrease by larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoil, United States is expected to significantly outperform it.

United States correlation with market

Good diversification
Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding United States 3x Oil Fund and equity matching DJI index in the same portfolio.