United States Risk Analysis

United States 3x Oil Fund -- USA Etf  

USD 38.3  0.83  2.22%

Macroaxis considers United States not very risky given 1 month investment horizon. United States 3x owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e. Sharpe Ratio) of 0.1196 which indicates United States 3x had 0.1196% of return per unit of risk over the last 1 month. Our philosophy towards measuring volatility of a etf is to use all available market data together with company specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-one technical indicators for United States 3x Oil Fund which you can use to evaluate future volatility of the etf. Please operate United States Semi Deviation of 3.92, Coefficient Of Variation of 870.17 and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0633 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations.
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change

United States Market Sensitivity

As returns on market increase, returns on owning United States are expected to decrease by larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoil, United States is expected to significantly outperform it.
One Month Beta |Analyze United States 3x Demand Trend
Check current 30 days United States correlation with market (DOW)
β = -1.563
United States Large Negative BetaUnited States 3x Beta Legend

United States 3x Technical Analysis

Transformation
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of seventeen. United States 3x Average Price is the average of the sum of open, high, low and close daily prices of a bar. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes just the closing price as input. View also all equity analysis or get more info about average price price transform indicator.

Projected Return Density Against Market

Given the investment horizon of 30 days, United States 3x Oil Fund has beta of -1.563 . This entails as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding United States 3x Oil Fund are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, United States is expected to outperform its benchmark. Moreover, United States 3x Oil Fund has an alpha of 0.8341 implying that it can potentially generate 0.8341% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Predicted Return Density 
      Returns 
Given the investment horizon of 30 days, the coefficient of variation of United States is 835.81. The daily returns are destributed with a variance of 15.18 and standard deviation of 3.9. The mean deviation of United States 3x Oil Fund is currently at 3.14. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (DOW) has volatility of 0.47
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.83
βBeta against DOW=1.56
σ
Overall volatility
=3.9
 IrInformation ratio =0.0474

Actual Return Volatility

United States 3x Oil Fund inherits 3.896% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 30 days horizon. DOW inherits 0.4705% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 30 days horizon.
 Performance (%) 
      Timeline 

Market Risk Breakdown

United States Volatility Factors

30 Days Market Risk

Not very risky

Chance of Distress in 24 months

Below average

30 Days Economic Sensitivity

Very regressive towards market

Largest Trends

United States Largest Period Trend

Investment Outlook

United States Investment Opportunity
United States 3x Oil Fund has a volatility of 3.9 and is 8.3 times more volatile than DOW. 36% of all equities and portfolios are less risky than United States. Compared to the overall equity markets, volatility of historical daily returns of United States 3x Oil Fund is lower than 36 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 30 days. Use United States 3x Oil Fund to enhance returns of your portfolios. The etf experiences unexpected upward trend. Watch out for market signals. Check odds of United States to be traded at $45.96 in 30 days. As returns on market increase, returns on owning United States are expected to decrease by larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoil, United States is expected to significantly outperform it.

United States correlation with market

Good diversification
Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding United States 3x Oil Fund and equity matching DJI index in the same portfolio.