Vale Sa Adr Stock Price Prediction

VALE Stock  USD 12.17  0.15  1.25%   
At the present time, the relative strength momentum indicator of Vale SA's share price is approaching 36. This entails that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Vale SA, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

36

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Vale SA ADR stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Vale SA shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Vale SA's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Vale SA and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Vale SA's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Vale SA ADR, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Vale SA's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.35)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.61
EPS Estimate Current Year
2.44
EPS Estimate Next Year
2.33
Wall Street Target Price
17.28
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Vale SA based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Vale stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Vale SA over a specific investment horizon. Using Vale SA hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Vale SA ADR from the perspective of Vale SA response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Vale SA using Vale SA's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Vale using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Vale SA's stock price.

Vale SA Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Vale SA's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Vale. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Vale SA stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Vale SA may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Vale SA and may potentially protect profits, hedge Vale SA with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
13.8406
Short Percent
0.0067
Short Ratio
1.44
Shares Short Prior Month
42.5 M
50 Day MA
13.248

Vale SA ADR Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Vale SA's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Vale. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Vale can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Vale SA ADR. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Vale SA's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Vale SA.

Vale SA Implied Volatility

    
  37.49  
Vale SA's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Vale SA ADR stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Vale SA's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Vale SA stock will not fluctuate a lot when Vale SA's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Vale SA. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Vale SA to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Vale because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Vale SA after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 12.17  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Vale contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Vale SA ADR will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.34% per day over the life of the 2024-03-28 option contract. With Vale SA trading at USD 12.17, that is roughly USD 0.29 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Vale SA's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Vale SA ADR options at the current volatility level of 37.49%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out Vale SA Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vale SA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
11.3812.8714.36
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
10.7312.2313.72
Details
24 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
14.8616.3318.13
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.560.640.79
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Vale SA. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Vale SA's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Vale SA's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Vale SA ADR.

Vale SA After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Vale SA at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Vale SA or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Vale SA, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Vale SA Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Vale SA's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Vale SA's historical news coverage. Vale SA's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.68 and 13.66, respectively. We have considered Vale SA's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
12.17
12.17
After-hype Price
13.66
Upside
Vale SA is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Vale SA ADR is based on 3 months time horizon.

Vale SA Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Vale SA is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Vale SA backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Vale SA, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.35 
1.51
  0.05 
  0.01 
11 Events / Month
5 Events / Month
In about 11 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
12.17
12.17
0.00 
1,079  
Notes

Vale SA Hype Timeline

Vale SA ADR is at this time traded for 12.17. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Vale is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.35%. %. The volatility of related hype on Vale SA is about 6177.27%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.18. About 18.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 1.3. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. Vale SA ADR last dividend was issued on the 12th of March 2024. The entity had 2:1 split on the 13th of September 2007. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 11 days.
Check out Vale SA Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Vale SA Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Vale SA's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Vale SA's future price movements. Getting to know how Vale SA rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Vale SA may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
MPMP Materials Corp 0.17 10 per month 0.00 (0.17) 5.66 (6.07) 16.02 
NBNioCorp Developments(0.02)10 per month 0.00 (0.07) 4.63 (5.14) 17.64 
MTRNMaterion(0.16)9 per month 1.81  0.01  3.94 (3.20) 14.98 
VZLAVizsla Resources Corp 0.04 8 per month 3.61  0.01  6.15 (5.69) 30.18 
NEXANexa Resources SA 0.02 7 per month 1.29 (0.04) 2.73 (2.24) 7.91 
ELBMElectra Battery Materials 0.03 5 per month 4.13  0.09  11.76 (6.98) 36.63 
USGOWUS GoldMining Warrant(0.08)3 per month 0.00 (0.04) 16.47 (15.00) 48.39 
BHPBHP Group Limited 0.19 9 per month 0.00 (0.27) 1.75 (2.51) 5.68 
BYUBAIYU Holdings 0.03 10 per month 5.48 (0) 10.29 (9.46) 40.51 

Vale SA Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Vale price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Vale using various technical indicators. When you analyze Vale charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Vale SA Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Vale SA stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Vale SA ADR, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Vale SA based on analysis of Vale SA hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Vale SA's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Vale SA's related companies.
 2021 2023 2024 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.190.08090.0428
Price To Sales Ratio1.291.662.79

Story Coverage note for Vale SA

The number of cover stories for Vale SA depends on current market conditions and Vale SA's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Vale SA is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Vale SA's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Vale SA Short Properties

Vale SA's future price predictability will typically decrease when Vale SA's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Vale SA ADR often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Vale SA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Vale SA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding4.4 B
Cash And Short Term Investments4.3 B
When determining whether Vale SA ADR is a strong investment it is important to analyze Vale SA's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Vale SA's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Vale Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Vale SA Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..

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When running Vale SA's price analysis, check to measure Vale SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Vale SA is operating at the current time. Most of Vale SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Vale SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Vale SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Vale SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Vale SA's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Vale SA. If investors know Vale will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Vale SA listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.35)
Dividend Share
1.75
Earnings Share
1.83
Revenue Per Share
47.655
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.028
The market value of Vale SA ADR is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Vale that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Vale SA's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Vale SA's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Vale SA's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Vale SA's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Vale SA's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Vale SA is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Vale SA's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.