Projected Return Density against Market
Considering 30-days investment horizon, the stock has beta cooficient of 1.18 . This means as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are expected to be negative, Exxon will likely underperform. In addition to that, Exxon Mobil Corporation has alpha of 1.18 implying that it can potentially generate 1.18% excess return over S&P 500 after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
Predicted Return Density
Considering 30-days investment horizon, the coefficient of variation of Exxon is 374.12. The daily returns are destributed with a variance of 0.81 and standard deviation of 0.9. The mean deviation of Exxon Mobil Corporation is currently at 0.7. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (S&P 500) has volatility of 0.54
Actual Return Volatility
Exxon Mobil Corporation has volatility of 0.9%
on return distribution over 30 days investment horizon. S&P 500 shows 0.54% volatility of returns over 30 trading days.