As simple as the title says, the potential upside is how much further you believe a stock or other asset is going to increase. There are many different ways to calculate this and decide on how much potential there is to the upside, so we will go over several. It may be easy to decide a company will grow and increase in stock value, but how much or how far is a little trickier.
When you first hop onto a charting platform and look at the tools, you will note the various types of moving averages. You can essentially pick any average type for any given length of time. For this article, we will specifically go over the simple moving average and how you can use it in your investing and trading techniques. How the moving average is calculated is by adding up all the closing prices for the period you determine, and dividing them by the total number of periods you have chosen. Not that you will ever need to do this, it is nice to understand how the tool you are using works.
When looking at a stock or equity, there are several data points to keep in mind, from dividend yield to current ratio. Another data point you should pull into your research is the annual yield, which simply put, is how much money to company made per share, including dividends and other returns on that investment. Many people look at this as a way to gauge the company against others in the industry, but it may not tell the whole story. The company could have had a subpar year, but it could have been due to marketing efforts or restructuring.
The Aroon Oscillator is another in the long line of oscillators that many people have heard of and utilize. This particular indicator ranges between negative one hundred and positive one hundred, using zero as the mid point. As you can guess, a positive oscillator will indicate to you a bullish trend and a negative oscillator will indicate to you a bearish trend.
When looking at a candle chart, it can be confusing and difficult to determine where the chart may switch, but by looking for a hammer formation, it could boost your predictability. A hammer pattern is when a candle forms and trades lower than the open, usually significantly, but later closes near or sometimes higher than where it opened. This does not indicate a trend change necessarily, but it could indicate that the opposite side is gaining momentum and the trend could change at any moment.
When looking at a chart, there are many different ways to evaluate your options, and the linear regression slope can help you indicate the current trend of the chart. The data is plotted as a line and fluctuates between positive and negative numbers, indicating where the trend currently lies. If the line is in positive territory, that would indicate the market is in an upward trend and if the line is in negative territory, that indicates the market is a bear and trending downward. This tool may resemble momentum tools and can certainly be used in conjunction with those tools.
When looking at stocks and the companies behind them, many of us take a look at items such as shares shorted, current price, and other data points to help formulate an opinion. One area many don’t consider and that is the amount of shares owned by insiders, and this is just as important as any other data. An insider is an employee or executive of the company, and why it is important to know how much they own is as follows.
EBITDA or earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization, helps to gauge how a company is operating and performing. When looking at this, you can evaluate how an company is preforming without taking into account decision related to finance or tax. Another way to look at it is net income with everything from interest to tax. Many valuation firms will use EBITDA in the numbers to help people gain an understanding of how the company has been doing compared to years past.
When looking to invest in companies, and item you should be looking for is dividends. A dividend is simply money returned to shareholders and is usually paid when the company is performing well. Not all companies give dividends, but it certainly is a welcomed addition many investor seek. Specifically, you want to look at the last dividend paid and determine if it is inline with previous payments are has changed either up or down. Typically, you want to see dividends remain constant or increase. If a dividend begins to decrease, this could signal the company needs the extra cash to go elsewhere.
True range or the average true range measures volatility and is an indicator used in charting. Welles Wilder introduced the average true range and it was initially used in commodities but is not exclusive to this equity type. When that average true range of a stock or equity is low, that means volatility is low and if the average true range is high, that means volatility is high. Many people use it to exit and enter trades, and this can certainly be used in conjunction with other indicators to help you locate the appropriate times to enter and exit positions.
A very popular momentum indicator is the Relative Strength Index or RSI for short. The Relative Strength Index uses a specific period of time, measuring speed as well as price movements of the equity you have chosen. When using the RSI, it is primarily used to determine if an equity is over bought or over sold, and does so by indicating a range from 0 to 100, with zero being extremely over sold and 100 being extremely over bought.
There are many different moving averages and for this one, we are going to take a look at the 4 period moving average. The 4 period moving average simply takes a look at the four periods previous to give you an average line. This type of moving average is quick and does not give you a whole lot of data for the person that is investing long term. However, if you are a day trader or an extremely short term investor, this could help you navigate the more volatile markets.
If you have been using candle stick pattern trading, then you have probably hear of the gap three method, which can work to the upside or downside. The gap three method to the upside happens when there is a strong uptrend. The gap happens to the first candle to the second, and then the third candle fills the gap. A reason that this occurs could be that people are simply taking profits from the gap up, but it may alter the long term up trend.
As simple as it sounds, a one year return is nothing more than the annualized return of a equity over a one year period. When using a one year return, there are many ways to implement it in your investing strategy. If you have multiple equities that cover the specific time period, using the one year return can help you to narrow your search. Mutual funds would be a popular area to use a one year return, because you can take the one year returns, less the expense ratios, and that will give you a good idea of how each fund will return. Certainly some funds are more volatile, but this is simply a place to start.
Beta is the measurement of how an equity or product moves with the underlying instrument it is attached with. Beta is measured as follows, if a product has a Beta of 1 or above, than the product is more volatile, but if it falls below 1, it will be less volatile. When a Beta is at 1, that means it will move in rhythm with the asset it is tied with. For example, the ETF ticker SPY that follows the S&P 500 will have a Beta near 1 because it is supposed to follow the S&P 500 Index. Conversely, if you invest in an inverse ETF, it will likely be near a 0 Beta because it moves in the opposite direction of the market it is intended to follow.