APAC Opto (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 22.3
| 4908 Stock | TWD 98.50 1.50 1.55% |
APAC |
APAC Opto Target Price Odds to finish below 22.3
The tendency of APAC Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to NT$ 22.30 or more in 90 days |
| 98.50 | 90 days | 22.30 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of APAC Opto to drop to NT$ 22.30 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This APAC Opto Electronics probability density function shows the probability of APAC Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of APAC Opto Electronics price to stay between NT$ 22.30 and its current price of NT$98.5 at the end of the 90-day period is about 33.54 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon APAC Opto has a beta of 0.34. This suggests as returns on the market go up, APAC Opto average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding APAC Opto Electronics will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally APAC Opto Electronics has an alpha of 0.2855, implying that it can generate a 0.29 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). APAC Opto Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for APAC Opto
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as APAC Opto Electronics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of APAC Opto's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
APAC Opto Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. APAC Opto is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the APAC Opto's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold APAC Opto Electronics, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of APAC Opto within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.29 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.34 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 12.16 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.06 |
APAC Opto Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of APAC Opto for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for APAC Opto Electronics can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| APAC Opto had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| About 45.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
APAC Opto Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of APAC Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential APAC Opto's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. APAC Opto's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 78.2 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 86 M | |
| Forward Annual Dividend Rate | 1.8 |
APAC Opto Technical Analysis
APAC Opto's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. APAC Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of APAC Opto Electronics. In general, you should focus on analyzing APAC Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
APAC Opto Predictive Forecast Models
APAC Opto's time-series forecasting models is one of many APAC Opto's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary APAC Opto's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about APAC Opto Electronics
Checking the ongoing alerts about APAC Opto for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for APAC Opto Electronics help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| APAC Opto had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| About 45.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Check out APAC Opto Backtesting, APAC Opto Valuation, APAC Opto Correlation, APAC Opto Hype Analysis, APAC Opto Volatility, APAC Opto History as well as APAC Opto Performance. You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.
Complementary Tools for APAC Stock analysis
When running APAC Opto's price analysis, check to measure APAC Opto's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy APAC Opto is operating at the current time. Most of APAC Opto's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of APAC Opto's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move APAC Opto's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of APAC Opto to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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