Dana (Germany) Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 17.77

4DH Stock  EUR 11.20  0.20  1.75%   
Dana's future price is the expected price of Dana instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Dana Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Dana Backtesting, Dana Valuation, Dana Correlation, Dana Hype Analysis, Dana Volatility, Dana History as well as Dana Performance.
  
Please specify Dana's target price for which you would like Dana odds to be computed.

Dana Target Price Odds to finish below 17.77

The tendency of Dana Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under € 17.77  after 90 days
 11.20 90 days 17.77 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Dana to stay under € 17.77  after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Dana Inc probability density function shows the probability of Dana Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Dana Inc price to stay between its current price of € 11.20  and € 17.77  at the end of the 90-day period is about 82.34 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Dana Inc has a beta of -0.25. This suggests as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Dana are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, however, Dana Inc is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Dana Inc has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Dana Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Dana

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dana Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Dana's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
8.9311.2013.47
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
7.309.5711.84
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
9.0411.3113.58
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
11.2011.2011.20
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Dana. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Dana's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Dana's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Dana Inc.

Dana Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Dana is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Dana's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Dana Inc, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Dana within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.17
β
Beta against NYSE Composite-0.25
σ
Overall volatility
0.70
Ir
Information ratio -0.14

Dana Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Dana for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Dana Inc can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Dana Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Dana Inc has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
Dana Inc has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations
The company reported the revenue of 10.16 B. Net Loss for the year was (242 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 763 M.
Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutions such as pension funds

Dana Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Dana Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Dana's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Dana's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding143.4 M

Dana Technical Analysis

Dana's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Dana Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Dana Inc. In general, you should focus on analyzing Dana Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Dana Predictive Forecast Models

Dana's time-series forecasting models is one of many Dana's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Dana's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Dana Inc

Checking the ongoing alerts about Dana for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Dana Inc help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Dana Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Dana Inc has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
Dana Inc has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations
The company reported the revenue of 10.16 B. Net Loss for the year was (242 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 763 M.
Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutions such as pension funds
When determining whether Dana Inc offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Dana's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Dana Inc Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Dana Inc Stock:
Check out Dana Backtesting, Dana Valuation, Dana Correlation, Dana Hype Analysis, Dana Volatility, Dana History as well as Dana Performance.
You can also try the Portfolio Dashboard module to portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments.

Complementary Tools for Dana Stock analysis

When running Dana's price analysis, check to measure Dana's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Dana is operating at the current time. Most of Dana's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Dana's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Dana's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Dana to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Dana's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Dana is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Dana's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.