Etron Technology (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 13.9
| 5351 Stock | TWD 47.00 2.95 6.70% |
Etron |
Etron Technology Target Price Odds to finish below 13.9
The tendency of Etron Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to NT$ 13.90 or more in 90 days |
| 47.00 | 90 days | 13.90 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Etron Technology to drop to NT$ 13.90 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Etron Technology probability density function shows the probability of Etron Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Etron Technology price to stay between NT$ 13.90 and its current price of NT$47.0 at the end of the 90-day period is under 4.
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Etron Technology has a beta of 0.17. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Etron Technology average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Etron Technology will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Etron Technology has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Etron Technology Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Etron Technology
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Etron Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Etron Technology's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Etron Technology Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Etron Technology is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Etron Technology's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Etron Technology, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Etron Technology within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.12 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.17 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.22 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
Etron Technology Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Etron Technology for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Etron Technology can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Etron Technology generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Etron Technology has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| About 14.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Etron Technology Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Etron Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Etron Technology's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Etron Technology's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 267.7 M |
Etron Technology Technical Analysis
Etron Technology's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Etron Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Etron Technology. In general, you should focus on analyzing Etron Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Etron Technology Predictive Forecast Models
Etron Technology's time-series forecasting models is one of many Etron Technology's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Etron Technology's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Etron Technology
Checking the ongoing alerts about Etron Technology for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Etron Technology help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Etron Technology generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Etron Technology has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| About 14.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Check out Etron Technology Backtesting, Etron Technology Valuation, Etron Technology Correlation, Etron Technology Hype Analysis, Etron Technology Volatility, Etron Technology History as well as Etron Technology Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
Complementary Tools for Etron Stock analysis
When running Etron Technology's price analysis, check to measure Etron Technology's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Etron Technology is operating at the current time. Most of Etron Technology's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Etron Technology's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Etron Technology's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Etron Technology to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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