Alcoa Probability of Target Price Finishing Over Current Price

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AA -- USA Stock  

Sell-off Trend

Alcoa probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Alcoa Corporation performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Alcoa time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Alcoa odds to be computed. Please continue to Alcoa Backtesting, Alcoa Valuation, Alcoa Correlation, Alcoa Hype Analysis, Alcoa Volatility, Alcoa History as well as Alcoa Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Alcoa Target Price Odds to finish over

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
 15.51 30 days 15.51 
close to 99
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Alcoa to move above current price in 30 days from now is close to 99 (This Alcoa Corporation probability density function shows the probability of Alcoa Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
Allowing for the 30-days total investment horizon, Alcoa Corporation has beta of -0.0625 . This suggests as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Alcoa are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, Alcoa Corporation is likely to outperform the market. Additionally The company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. Alcoa is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Alcoa Price Density 
    
  Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.41
β
Beta against DOW=0.06
σ
Overall volatility
=1.47
Ir
Information ratio =0.19

Alcoa Alerts and Suggestions

Alcoa generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
The company generated yearly revenue of 11.34 B. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (794 M) with gross profit of 3.32 B.
Latest headline from bovnews.com: Offer a Great Values in Short-term Alcoa Corporation and Plains All American Pipeline L.P. - BOV News

AlcoaPrice Density Drivers

Shares Percent Shares Out4.20%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.36
Short Percent Of Float5.43%
Float Shares185.05M
Shares Short Prior Month8.64M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day9.44M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month4.11M
Date Short InterestDecember 31, 2019
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield2.04%