Alcoa Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 32.55

AA -- USA Stock  

USD 43.79  1.65  3.92%

Alcoa probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Alcoa Corporation performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Alcoa time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Alcoa odds to be computed. Check also Alcoa Backtesting, Alcoa Valuation, Alcoa Correlation, Alcoa Hype Analysis, Alcoa Volatility, Alcoa History as well as Alcoa Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Alcoa Target Price Odds to finish below 32.55

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 32.55  or more in 30 days
 43.79 30 days 32.55  ABOUT 59.93%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Alcoa to drop to $ 32.55  or more in 30 days from now is about 59.93% (This Alcoa Corporation probability density function shows the probability of Alcoa Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Alcoa price to stay between $ 32.55  and its current price of $43.79 at the end of the 30-day period is about 18.41%.
Allowing for the 30-days total investment horizon, the stock has beta coefficient of 1.0026 . This suggests Alcoa Corporation market returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market benchmark goes up or down, Alcoa is expected to follow. Additionally Alcoa Corporation has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
 Alcoa Price Density 
 
      
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.51
β
Beta against DOW=1.00
σ
Overall volatility
=21.10
Ir
Information ratio =0.28

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Price Density Drivers

Alcoa Health Indicators

Shares Percent Shares Out4.54%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.36
Short Percent Of Float4.55%
Float Shares186.26M
Shares Short Prior Month9.04M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day2.99M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month3.72M
Date Short InterestAugust 31, 2018
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield0.84%
Check also Alcoa Backtesting, Alcoa Valuation, Alcoa Correlation, Alcoa Hype Analysis, Alcoa Volatility, Alcoa History as well as Alcoa Performance. Please also try Coins and Tokens Correlation module to utilize digital token correlation table to build portfolio of cryptocurrencies across multiple exchanges.
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