Alcoa Probability of Target Price

    Alcoa probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Alcoa Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Alcoa time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Alcoa odds to be computed. Check also Alcoa Backtesting, Alcoa Valuation, Alcoa Correlation, Alcoa Hype Analysis, Alcoa Volatility, Alcoa History as well as Alcoa Performance
    Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    Odds Analysis

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
     29.80 30 days 37.47  near 1% close to 100%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Alcoa to stay under  37.47  after 30 days from now is close to 100%. Probability of Alcoa Inc price to stay between its current price of  29.80  and  37.47  at the end of the 30-day period is roughly 96.0%.
    Allowing for the 30-days total investment horizon, Alcoa Inc has beta of -0.9832 . This suggests Additionally Alcoa Inc has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
    > 99%
    Odds to stay under  37.47  after 30 days
     Alcoa Price Density 
    Current Price   Target Price   
    Alpha over DOW
    βBeta against DOW=(0.98) 
    Overall volatility
    = 1.31 
     IrInformation ratio =(0.34)