Alcoa Probability of Target Price

    Alcoa Corporation -- USA Stock  

    USD 47.75  0.18  0.38%

    Alcoa probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Alcoa Corporation performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Alcoa time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Alcoa odds to be computed. Check also Alcoa Backtesting, Alcoa Valuation, Alcoa Correlation, Alcoa Hype Analysis, Alcoa Volatility, Alcoa History as well as Alcoa Performance
    Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    Odds Analysis

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
     47.75 30 days 37.47  close to 100% near 1%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Alcoa to drop to $ 37.47  or more in 30 days from now is near 1%. Probability of Alcoa price to stay between $ 37.47  and its current price of $47.75 at the end of the 30-day period is about 75.96%.
    Allowing for the 30-days total investment horizon, Alcoa Corporation has beta of -0.4331 . This suggests as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Alcoa are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, Alcoa Corporation is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Alcoa Corporation has an alpha of 0.2225 implying that it can potentially generate 0.2225% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
    < 1%
    Odds to drop to $ 37.47  or more in 30 days
     Alcoa Price Density 
     
     Prices     
    Current Price   Target Price   
    α
    Alpha over DOW
    = 0.22 
    βBeta against DOW=(0.43) 
    σ
    Overall volatility
    = 1.1 
     IrInformation ratio = 0.0153