Alcoa Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 38.43255

AA -- USA Stock  

USD 29.45  0.35  1.20%

Alcoa probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Alcoa Corporation performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Alcoa time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Alcoa odds to be computed. Check also Alcoa Backtesting, Alcoa Valuation, Alcoa Correlation, Alcoa Hype Analysis, Alcoa Volatility, Alcoa History as well as Alcoa Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
Symbol:
Refresh Odds

Alcoa Target Price Odds to finish below 38.43255

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 38.43  after 30 days
 29.45 30 days 38.43  MORE THAN 94.0%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Alcoa to stay under $ 38.43  after 30 days from now is more than 94.0% (This Alcoa Corporation probability density function shows the probability of Alcoa Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Alcoa price to stay between its current price of $ 29.45  and $ 38.43  at the end of the 30-day period is about 87.95%.
Allowing for the 30-days total investment horizon, the stock has beta coefficient of 1.5005 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are expected to be negative, Alcoa will likely underperform. Additionally Alcoa Corporation has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
 Alcoa Price Density 
      Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.35
β
Beta against DOW=1.50
σ
Overall volatility
=2.89
Ir
Information ratio =0.11

Alcoa Alerts

Alcoa Alerts and Suggestions

Alcoa generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
Alcoa has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The company generated yearly revenue of 13.23B. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (12M) with gross profit of 2.59B.

Price Density Drivers

Alcoa Health Indicators

Shares Percent Shares Out3.25%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.36
Short Percent Of Float3.26%
Float Shares186.2M
Shares Short Prior Month6.16M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day3.16M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month4.03M
Date Short InterestNovember 15, 2018
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield1.23%
Check also Alcoa Backtesting, Alcoa Valuation, Alcoa Correlation, Alcoa Hype Analysis, Alcoa Volatility, Alcoa History as well as Alcoa Performance. Please also try Cryptocurrency Correlation module to use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins and exchanges.
Search macroaxis.com