|Current Price||Horizon||Target Price||Odds to drop to $ 38.43 or more in 30 days|
| 42.95 ||30 days|| 38.43 || ABOUT 72.53%|
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Alcoa to drop to $ 38.43 or more in 30 days from now is about 72.53% (This Alcoa Corporation probability density function shows the probability of Alcoa Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Alcoa price to stay between $ 38.43 and its current price of $42.95 at the end of the 30-day period is about 6.48%.
Allowing for the 30-days total investment horizon, the stock has beta coefficient of 1.239 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are expected to be negative, Alcoa will likely underperform. Additionally Alcoa Corporation has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
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