Alcoa Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 38.43255

AA -- USA Stock  

USD 42.95  0.32  0.75%

Alcoa probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Alcoa Corporation performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Alcoa time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Alcoa odds to be computed. Check also Alcoa Backtesting, Alcoa Valuation, Alcoa Correlation, Alcoa Hype Analysis, Alcoa Volatility, Alcoa History as well as Alcoa Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Alcoa Target Price Odds to finish below 38.43255

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 38.43  or more in 30 days
 42.95 30 days 38.43  ABOUT 72.53%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Alcoa to drop to $ 38.43  or more in 30 days from now is about 72.53% (This Alcoa Corporation probability density function shows the probability of Alcoa Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Alcoa price to stay between $ 38.43  and its current price of $42.95 at the end of the 30-day period is about 6.48%.
Allowing for the 30-days total investment horizon, the stock has beta coefficient of 1.239 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are expected to be negative, Alcoa will likely underperform. Additionally Alcoa Corporation has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
 Alcoa Price Density 
 
      
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.47
β
Beta against DOW=1.24
σ
Overall volatility
=21.69
Ir
Information ratio =0.26

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Price Density Drivers

Alcoa Health Indicators

Shares Percent Shares Out4.90%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.36
Short Percent Of Float4.91%
Float Shares186.26M
Shares Short Prior Month6.52M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day3.92M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month3.69M
Date Short InterestAugust 15, 2018
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield0.86%
Check also Alcoa Backtesting, Alcoa Valuation, Alcoa Correlation, Alcoa Hype Analysis, Alcoa Volatility, Alcoa History as well as Alcoa Performance. Please also try CEO Directory module to screen ceos from public companies around the world.
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