Alcoa Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 38.43255

    Alcoa Corporation -- USA Stock  

    USD 41.39  0.82  1.94%

    Alcoa probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Alcoa Corporation performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Alcoa time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Alcoa odds to be computed. Check also Alcoa Backtesting, Alcoa Valuation, Alcoa Correlation, Alcoa Hype Analysis, Alcoa Volatility, Alcoa History as well as Alcoa Performance
    Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    Alcoa Target Price Odds to finish below 38.43255

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
     41.39 30 days 38.43  close to 100% near 1%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Alcoa to drop to $ 38.43  or more in 30 days from now is near 1%. Probability of Alcoa price to stay between $ 38.43  and its current price of $41.39 at the end of the 30-day period is about 6.02%.
    Allowing for the 30-days total investment horizon, the stock has beta coefficient of 1.1152 . This suggests Alcoa Corporation market returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market benchmark goes up or down, Alcoa is expected to follow. Additionally Alcoa Corporation has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
    < 1%
    Odds to drop to $ 38.43  or more in 30 days
     Alcoa Price Density 
     
     Prices     
    Current Price   Target Price   
    α
    Alpha over DOW
    =0.71
    βBeta against DOW=1.12
    σ
    Overall volatility
    =2.85
     IrInformation ratio =0.35