Alcoa Probability of Target Price Finishing Over 38.43255

    Alcoa Corporation -- USA Stock  

    USD 47.80  0.25  0.53%

    Alcoa probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Alcoa Corporation performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Alcoa time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Alcoa odds to be computed. Check also Alcoa Backtesting, Alcoa Valuation, Alcoa Correlation, Alcoa Hype Analysis, Alcoa Volatility, Alcoa History as well as Alcoa Performance
     Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    Alcoa Target Price Odds to finish over 38.43255

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
     47.80 30 days 38.43  close to 100% near 1%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Alcoa to stay above $ 38.43  in 30 days from now is close to 100%. Probability of Alcoa price to stay between $ 38.43  and its current price of $47.8 at the end of the 30-day period is about 23.59%.
    Allowing for the 30-days total investment horizon, Alcoa has beta of 0.7715 . This suggests as returns on market go up, Alcoa average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Alcoa Corporation will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Alcoa Corporation has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
    > 99%
    Odds to stay above $ 38.43  in 30 days
     Alcoa Price Density 
    Current Price   Target Price   
    Alpha over DOW
    Beta against DOW=0.77
    Overall volatility
    Information ratio =0.1