Alcoa Probability of Target Price Finishing Over 38.43255

AA -- USA Stock  

USD 44.81  0.46  1.02%

Alcoa probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Alcoa Corporation performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Alcoa time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Alcoa odds to be computed. Check also Alcoa Backtesting, Alcoa Valuation, Alcoa Correlation, Alcoa Hype Analysis, Alcoa Volatility, Alcoa History as well as Alcoa Performance.
 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Alcoa Target Price Odds to finish over 38.43255

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 38.43  in 30 days
 44.81 30 days 38.43  CLOSE TO 99%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Alcoa to stay above $ 38.43  in 30 days from now is close to 99% (This Alcoa Corporation probability density function shows the probability of Alcoa Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Alcoa price to stay between $ 38.43  and its current price of $44.81 at the end of the 30-day period is under 4%.
Allowing for the 30-days total investment horizon, Alcoa has beta of 0.0 . This suggests unless we do not have required data, the returns on DOW and Alcoa are completely uncorrelated. Additionally Alcoa CorporationIt does not look like Alcoa alpha can have any bearing on the equity current valuation.
 Alcoa Price Density 
 
      
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.00
β
Beta against DOW=0.00
σ
Overall volatility
=1.71
Ir
Information ratio =0.22

Alcoa Alerts

Alcoa Alerts and Suggestions
Alcoa generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
Alcoa has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its debt commitments
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by William Oplinger of 7510 shares of Alcoa subject to Rule 16b-3

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Check also Alcoa Backtesting, Alcoa Valuation, Alcoa Correlation, Alcoa Hype Analysis, Alcoa Volatility, Alcoa History as well as Alcoa Performance. Please also try Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.