Alcoa Probability of Target Price Finishing Over 38.43255

AA -- USA Stock  

USD 43.79  1.83  4.36%

Alcoa probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Alcoa Corporation performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Alcoa time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Alcoa odds to be computed. Check also Alcoa Backtesting, Alcoa Valuation, Alcoa Correlation, Alcoa Hype Analysis, Alcoa Volatility, Alcoa History as well as Alcoa Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Alcoa Target Price Odds to finish over 38.43255

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 38.43  in 30 days
 43.79 30 days 38.43  ABOUT 29.49%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Alcoa to stay above $ 38.43  in 30 days from now is about 29.49% (This Alcoa Corporation probability density function shows the probability of Alcoa Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Alcoa price to stay between $ 38.43  and its current price of $43.79 at the end of the 30-day period is about 8.13%.
Allowing for the 30-days total investment horizon, Alcoa has beta of 0.6627 . This suggests as returns on market go up, Alcoa average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Alcoa Corporation will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Alcoa Corporation has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
 Alcoa Price Density 
 
      
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.24
β
Beta against DOW=0.66
σ
Overall volatility
=21.01
Ir
Information ratio =0.16

Alcoa Alerts

Alcoa Alerts and Suggestions

Alcoa generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Mary Citrino of 2224 shares of Alcoa subject to Rule 16b-3

Price Density Drivers

Alcoa Health Indicators

Shares Percent Shares Out4.54%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.36
Short Percent Of Float4.55%
Float Shares186.26M
Shares Short Prior Month9.04M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day2.99M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month3.72M
Date Short InterestAugust 31, 2018
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield0.84%
Check also Alcoa Backtesting, Alcoa Valuation, Alcoa Correlation, Alcoa Hype Analysis, Alcoa Volatility, Alcoa History as well as Alcoa Performance. Please also try Cryptocurrency Correlation module to use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins and exchanges.
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