|Current Price||Horizon||Target Price||Odds to move over $ 44.31 or more in 30 days|
| 43.79 ||30 days|| 44.31 || ABOUT 20.64%|
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Alcoa to move over $ 44.31 or more in 30 days from now is about 20.64% (This Alcoa Corporation probability density function shows the probability of Alcoa Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Alcoa price to stay between its current price of $ 43.79 and $ 44.31 at the end of the 30-day period is near 1%.
Allowing for the 30-days total investment horizon, Alcoa has beta of 0.6627 . This suggests as returns on market go up, Alcoa average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Alcoa Corporation will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Alcoa Corporation has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
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