American Airlines Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 41.24

American Airlines Group -- USA Stock  

USD 46.78  0.10  0.21%

American Airlines probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of American Airlines Group performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify American Airlines time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like American Airlines odds to be computed. Check also American Airlines Backtesting, American Airlines Valuation, American Airlines Correlation, American Airlines Hype Analysis, American Airlines Volatility, American Airlines History as well as American Airlines Performance.
 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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American Airlines Target Price Odds to finish below 41.24

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 46.78 30 days 41.24  close to 99% near 1%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of American Airlines to drop to $ 41.24  or more in 30 days from now is near 1% (This American Airlines Group probability density function shows the probability of American Airlines Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of American Airlines Group price to stay between $ 41.24  and its current price of $46.78 at the end of the 30-day period is about 5.7%.
Considering 30-days investment horizon, American Airlines has beta of 0.1379 . This suggests as returns on market go up, American Airlines average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding American Airlines Group will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally American Airlines Group has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
< 1%
Odds to drop to $ 41.24  or more in 30 days
 American Airlines Price Density 
 
      
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.2
β
Beta against DOW=0.14
σ
Overall volatility
=3.20
Ir
Information ratio =0.05

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Check also American Airlines Backtesting, American Airlines Valuation, American Airlines Correlation, American Airlines Hype Analysis, American Airlines Volatility, American Airlines History as well as American Airlines Performance. Please also try Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.