American Airlines Probability of Target Price Finishing Over 45.62

American Airlines Group Inc -- USA Stock  

USD 48.66  0.01  0.0206%

American Airlines probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of American Airlines Group Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify American Airlines time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like American Airlines odds to be computed. Check also American Airlines Backtesting, American Airlines Valuation, American Airlines Correlation, American Airlines Hype Analysis, American Airlines Volatility, American Airlines History as well as American Airlines Performance
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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American Airlines Target Price Odds to finish over 45.62

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 48.66 30 days 45.62  about 89.5% about 10.34%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of American Airlines to stay above $ 45.62  in 30 days from now is about 89.5%. Probability of American Airlines Group price to stay between $ 45.62  and its current price of $48.66 at the end of the 30-day period is about 65.22%.
Considering 30-days investment horizon, American Airlines Group Inc has beta of -0.0799 . This suggests as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding American Airlines are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, American Airlines Group Inc is likely to outperform the market. Additionally American Airlines Group Inc has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
90.0%
Odds to stay above $ 45.62  in 30 days
 American Airlines Price Density 
 
 Prices     
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.29
βBeta against DOW=0.08
σ
Overall volatility
=1.56
 IrInformation ratio =0.21