American Airlines Probability of Target Price

American Airlines probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of American Airlines Group Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify American Airlines time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like American Airlines odds to be computed. Check also American Airlines Backtesting, American Airlines Valuation, American Airlines Correlation, American Airlines Hype Analysis, American Airlines Volatility, American Airlines History as well as American Airlines Performance
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Odds Analysis

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 48.97 30 days 48.39  about 70.9% about 28.7%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of American Airlines to drop to  48.39  or more in 30 days from now is about 28.7%. Probability of American Airlines Group price to stay between  48.39  and its current price of 48.97 at the end of the 30-day period is about 19.06%.
Considering 30-days investment horizon, American Airlines Group Inc has beta of -1.3676 . This suggests as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding American Airlines Group Inc are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, American Airlines is expected to outperform its benchmark. Additionally American Airlines Group Inc has an alpha of 0.3586 implying that it can potentially generate 0.3586% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
29.0%
Odds to drop to  48.39  or more in 30 days
 American Airlines Price Density 
 
 Prices     
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
= 0.36 
βBeta against DOW=(1.37) 
σ
Overall volatility
= 1.15 
 IrInformation ratio = 0.08