American Airlines Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 50.57275

American Airlines Group Inc -- USA Stock  

USD 47.68  0.29  0.61%

American Airlines probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of American Airlines Group Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify American Airlines time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like American Airlines odds to be computed. Check also American Airlines Backtesting, American Airlines Valuation, American Airlines Correlation, American Airlines Hype Analysis, American Airlines Volatility, American Airlines History as well as American Airlines Performance
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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American Airlines Target Price Odds to finish below 50.57275

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 47.68 30 days 50.57  about 10.81% about 89.06%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of American Airlines to stay under $ 50.57  after 30 days from now is about 89.06%. Probability of American Airlines Group price to stay between its current price of $ 47.68  and $ 50.57  at the end of the 30-day period is about 45.34%.
Considering 30-days investment horizon, American Airlines has beta of 0.602 . This suggests as returns on market go up, American Airlines average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding American Airlines Group Inc will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally American Airlines Group Inc has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
89.0%
Odds to stay under $ 50.57  after 30 days
 American Airlines Price Density 
 
 Prices     
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.39
βBeta against DOW=0.6
σ
Overall volatility
=2.08
 IrInformation ratio =0.24