American Airlines Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 50.57275

AAL -- USA Stock  

USD 31.78  0.85  2.75%

American Airlines probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of American Airlines Group performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify American Airlines time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like American Airlines odds to be computed. Check also American Airlines Backtesting, American Airlines Valuation, American Airlines Correlation, American Airlines Hype Analysis, American Airlines Volatility, American Airlines History as well as American Airlines Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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American Airlines Target Price Odds to finish below 50.57275

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 50.57  after 30 days
 31.78 30 days 50.57  CLOSE TO 99%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of American Airlines to stay under $ 50.57  after 30 days from now is close to 99% (This American Airlines Group probability density function shows the probability of American Airlines Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of American Airlines Group price to stay between its current price of $ 31.78  and $ 50.57  at the end of the 30-day period is under 95%.
Considering 30-days investment horizon, the stock has beta coefficient of 1.07 . This suggests American Airlines Group market returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market benchmark goes up or down, American Airlines is expected to follow. Additionally American Airlines Group has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
 American Airlines Price Density 
 
      
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.82
β
Beta against DOW=1.07
σ
Overall volatility
=3.96
Ir
Information ratio =0.3

American Airlines Alerts

American Airlines Alerts and Suggestions

American Airlines generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
American Airlines has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial commitments
The company has 24.08 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 638.4 . This implies that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. American Airlines Group has Current Ratio of 0.54 suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due.
AAL has about 4.67 B in cash with (225.88 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 10.15.
Roughly 42.0% of American Airlines Group shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from www.marketwatch.com: Acquisition by Bachmann John W of 190 shares of American Airlines subject to Rule 16b-3

Price Density Drivers

American Airlines Health Indicators

Shares Percent Shares Out5.74%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.40
Short Percent Of Float7.63%
Float Shares411.11M
Shares Short Prior Month29.78M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day9.11M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month6.83M
Date Short InterestSeptember 14, 2018
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield1.19%
Check also American Airlines Backtesting, American Airlines Valuation, American Airlines Correlation, American Airlines Hype Analysis, American Airlines Volatility, American Airlines History as well as American Airlines Performance. Please also try Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.
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