American Airlines Probability of Target Price Finishing Over 50.57275

AAL -- USA Stock  

USD 37.88  0.25  0.66%

American Airlines probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of American Airlines Group performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify American Airlines time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like American Airlines odds to be computed. Check also American Airlines Backtesting, American Airlines Valuation, American Airlines Correlation, American Airlines Hype Analysis, American Airlines Volatility, American Airlines History as well as American Airlines Performance.
 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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American Airlines Target Price Odds to finish over 50.57275

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 50.57  or more in 30 days
 37.88 30 days 50.57  NEAR 1%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of American Airlines to move over $ 50.57  or more in 30 days from now is near 1% (This American Airlines Group probability density function shows the probability of American Airlines Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of American Airlines Group price to stay between its current price of $ 37.88  and $ 50.57  at the end of the 30-day period is about 65.74%.
Considering 30-days investment horizon, American Airlines Group has beta of -0.459 . This suggests as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding American Airlines are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, American Airlines Group is likely to outperform the market. Additionally American Airlines Group has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
 American Airlines Price Density 
 
      
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.4
β
Beta against DOW=0.46
σ
Overall volatility
=1.54
Ir
Information ratio =0.24

American Airlines Alerts

American Airlines Alerts and Suggestions
American Airlines generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
American Airlines has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
American Airlines has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial commitments
The company has 24.74 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 638.4 . This implies that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. American Airlines Group has Current Ratio of 0.56 suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due.
AAL has about 5.29 B in cash with (504.88 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 11.3.
Roughly 41.0% of American Airlines Group shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from www.stocknewsgazette.com: Comparing Top Moving Stocks Devon Energy Corporation , American Airlines Group Inc.
Check also American Airlines Backtesting, American Airlines Valuation, American Airlines Correlation, American Airlines Hype Analysis, American Airlines Volatility, American Airlines History as well as American Airlines Performance. Please also try Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
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