American Airlines Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 50.88

American Airlines Group Inc -- USA Stock  

USD 51.3  0.28  0.55%

American Airlines probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of American Airlines Group Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify American Airlines time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like American Airlines odds to be computed. Check also American Airlines Backtesting, American Airlines Valuation, American Airlines Correlation, American Airlines Hype Analysis, American Airlines Volatility, American Airlines History as well as American Airlines Performance
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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American Airlines Target Price Odds to finish below 50.88

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 51.3 30 days 50.88  about 8.73% about 91.14%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of American Airlines to drop to $ 50.88  or more in 30 days from now is about 91.14%. Probability of American Airlines Group price to stay between $ 50.88  and its current price of $51.3 at the end of the 30-day period is under 4%.
Considering 30-days investment horizon, the stock has beta coefficient of 1.2249 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are expected to be negative, American Airlines will likely underperform. Additionally American Airlines Group Inc has an alpha of 0.3139681480045454 implying that it can potentially generate 0.3139681480045454% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
91.0%
Odds to drop to $ 50.88  or more in 30 days
 American Airlines Price Density 
 
 Prices     
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.31
βBeta against DOW=1.22
σ
Overall volatility
=1.73
 IrInformation ratio =0.26