American Airlines Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 52.21

American Airlines Group Inc -- USA Stock  

USD 58.34  0.18  0.31%

American Airlines probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of American Airlines Group Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify American Airlines time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like American Airlines odds to be computed. Check also American Airlines Backtesting, American Airlines Valuation, American Airlines Correlation, American Airlines Hype Analysis, American Airlines Volatility, American Airlines History as well as American Airlines Performance
 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
Refresh Odds

American Airlines Target Price Odds to finish below 52.21

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 58.34 30 days 52.21  about 71.21% about 28.57%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of American Airlines to drop to $ 52.21  or more in 30 days from now is about 28.57%. Probability of American Airlines Group price to stay between $ 52.21  and its current price of $58.34 at the end of the 30-day period is about 68.47%.
Considering 30-days investment horizon, American Airlines Group Inc has beta of -0.6688 . This suggests as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding American Airlines are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, American Airlines Group Inc is likely to outperform the market. Additionally American Airlines Group Inc has an alpha of 0.7967393384727272 implying that it can potentially generate 0.7967393384727272% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
29.0%
Odds to drop to $ 52.21  or more in 30 days
 American Airlines Price Density 
 
 Prices     
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.8
β
Beta against DOW=0.67
σ
Overall volatility
=2.47
Ir
Information ratio =0.21