American Airlines Probability of Target Price Finishing Over 53.82

American Airlines Group Inc -- USA Stock  

USD 53.62  1.70  3.07%

American Airlines probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of American Airlines Group Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify American Airlines time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like American Airlines odds to be computed. Check also American Airlines Backtesting, American Airlines Valuation, American Airlines Correlation, American Airlines Hype Analysis, American Airlines Volatility, American Airlines History as well as American Airlines Performance
 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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American Airlines Target Price Odds to finish over 53.82

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 53.62 30 days 53.82  about 61.61% about 37.97%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of American Airlines to move over $ 53.82  or more in 30 days from now is about 61.61%. Probability of American Airlines Group price to stay between its current price of $ 53.62  and $ 53.82  at the end of the 30-day period is about 5.47%.
Considering 30-days investment horizon, American Airlines Group Inc has beta of -0.126 . This suggests as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding American Airlines are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, American Airlines Group Inc is likely to outperform the market. Additionally American Airlines Group Inc has an alpha of 0.31335393618181817 implying that it can potentially generate 0.31335393618181817% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
Odds to move over $ 53.82  or more in 30 days
 American Airlines Price Density 
Current Price   Target Price   
Alpha over DOW
Beta against DOW=0.13
Overall volatility
Information ratio =0.27