American Airlines Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 54.79

AAL -- USA Stock  

USD 32.41  1.13  3.37%

American Airlines probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of American Airlines Group performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify American Airlines time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like American Airlines odds to be computed. Check also American Airlines Backtesting, American Airlines Valuation, American Airlines Correlation, American Airlines Hype Analysis, American Airlines Volatility, American Airlines History as well as American Airlines Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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American Airlines Target Price Odds to finish below 54.79

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 54.79  after 30 days
 32.41 30 days 54.79  CLOSE TO 99%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of American Airlines to stay under $ 54.79  after 30 days from now is close to 99% (This American Airlines Group probability density function shows the probability of American Airlines Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of American Airlines price to stay between its current price of $ 32.41  and $ 54.79  at the end of the 30-day period is about 87.91%.
Considering 30-days investment horizon, the stock has beta coefficient of 1.4531 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are expected to be negative, American Airlines will likely underperform. Additionally American Airlines Group has an alpha of 0.3379 implying that it can potentially generate 0.3379% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 American Airlines Price Density 
      Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.34
β
Beta against DOW=1.45
σ
Overall volatility
=2.47
Ir
Information ratio =0.08

American Airlines Alerts

American Airlines Alerts and Suggestions

American Airlines has very high historical volatility over the last 30 days
American Airlines has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
American Airlines has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial commitments
The company has 24.77B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 638.4 . This implies that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. American Airlines Group has Current Ratio of 0.57 suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due.
About 42.0% of American Airlines Group shares are held by company insiders

Price Density Drivers

American Airlines Health Indicators

Shares Percent Shares Out5.82%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.40
Short Percent Of Float7.74%
Float Shares412.27M
Shares Short Prior Month30.5M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day8.36M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month9.3M
Date Short InterestNovember 15, 2018
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield1.16%
Check also American Airlines Backtesting, American Airlines Valuation, American Airlines Correlation, American Airlines Hype Analysis, American Airlines Volatility, American Airlines History as well as American Airlines Performance. Please also try Fundamentals Matrix module to view fundamentals matrix and analyze how accounts are interrelated and interconnected with each other.
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