Apple Probability of Target Price

Apple Inc -- USA Stock  

USD 155.98  0.27  0.17%

Apple probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Apple Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Apple time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Apple odds to be computed. Check also Apple Backtesting, Apple Valuation, Apple Correlation, Apple Hype Analysis, Apple Volatility, Apple History as well as Apple Performance
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
Refresh Odds

Odds Analysis

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 155.98 30 days 155.98  about 39.21% about 60.15%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Apple to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 39.21%.
Given the investment horizon of 30 days, Apple has beta of 0.7778 . This suggests as returns on market go up, Apple average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Apple Inc will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Apple Inc has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
39.0%
Odds to move above current price in 30 days
 Apple Price Density 
 
 Prices     
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=(0.0672) 
βBeta against DOW= 0.78 
σ
Overall volatility
= 2.49 
 IrInformation ratio =(0.12)