Apple Probability of Target Price

Apple probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Apple Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Apple time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Apple odds to be computed. Check also Apple Backtesting, Apple Valuation, Apple Correlation, Apple Hype Analysis, Apple Volatility, Apple History as well as Apple Performance
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Odds Analysis

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 153.61 30 days 119.75  close to 100% near 1%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Apple to drop to  119.75  or more in 30 days from now is near 1%. Probability of Apple Inc price to stay between  119.75  and its current price of 153.61 at the end of the 30-day period is about 71.97%.
Given the investment horizon of 30 days, the stock has beta coefficient of 1.4723 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are expected to be negative, Apple will likely underperform. Additionally Apple Inc has an alpha of 0.2793 implying that it can potentially generate 0.2793% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
< 1%
Odds to drop to  119.75  or more in 30 days
 Apple Price Density 
 
 Prices     
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
= 0.28 
βBeta against DOW= 1.47 
σ
Overall volatility
= 3.86 
 IrInformation ratio = 0.24