Apple Probability of Target Price

Apple Inc -- USA Stock  

USD 150.55  1.34  0.88%

Apple probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Apple Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Apple time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Apple odds to be computed. Check also Apple Backtesting, Apple Valuation, Apple Correlation, Apple Hype Analysis, Apple Volatility, Apple History as well as Apple Performance
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Odds Analysis

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 150.55 30 days 127.31  close to 100% near 1%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Apple to drop to $ 127.31  or more in 30 days from now is near 1%. Probability of Apple Inc price to stay between $ 127.31  and its current price of $150.55 at the end of the 30-day period is near 1%.
Given the investment horizon of 30 days, the stock has beta coefficient of 1.4146 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are expected to be negative, Apple will likely underperform. Additionally Apple Inc has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
< 1%
Odds to drop to $ 127.31  or more in 30 days
 Apple Price Density 
 
 Prices     
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=(0.40) 
βBeta against DOW= 1.41 
σ
Overall volatility
= 3.67 
 IrInformation ratio =(0.38)