Apple Probability of Target Price

Apple probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Apple Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Apple time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Apple odds to be computed. Check also Apple Backtesting, Apple Valuation, Apple Correlation, Apple Hype Analysis, Apple Volatility, Apple History as well as Apple Performance
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Odds Analysis

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 145.63 30 days 146.61  about 78.55% about 21.18%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Apple to move over  146.61  or more in 30 days from now is about 78.55%. Probability of Apple Inc price to stay between its current price of  145.63  and  146.61  at the end of the 30-day period is about 5.78%.
Given the investment horizon of 30 days, Apple Inc has beta of -0.6075 . This suggests as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Apple are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, Apple Inc is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Apple Inc has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
79.0%
Odds to move over  146.61  or more in 30 days
 Apple Price Density 
 
 Prices     
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=(0.19) 
βBeta against DOW=(0.61) 
σ
Overall volatility
= 4.51 
 IrInformation ratio =(0.26)