Apple Probability of Target Price

Apple Inc -- USA Stock  

USD 159.76  3.51  2.25%

Apple probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Apple Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Apple time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Apple odds to be computed. Check also Apple Backtesting, Apple Valuation, Apple Correlation, Apple Hype Analysis, Apple Volatility, Apple History as well as Apple Performance
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Odds Analysis

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 159.76 30 days 146.61  close to 100% near 1%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Apple to stay above $ 146.61  in 30 days from now is close to 100%. Probability of Apple Inc price to stay between $ 146.61  and its current price of $159.76 at the end of the 30-day period is roughly 96.0%.
Given the investment horizon of 30 days, Apple Inc has beta of -1.2543 . This suggests as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding Apple Inc are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, Apple is expected to outperform its benchmark. Additionally Apple Inc has an alpha of 0.2513 implying that it can potentially generate 0.2513% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
> 99%
Odds to stay above $ 146.61  in 30 days
 Apple Price Density 
 
 Prices     
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
= 0.25 
βBeta against DOW=(1.25) 
σ
Overall volatility
= 2.49 
 IrInformation ratio =(0.0695)