Apple Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 155.15

Apple Inc -- USA Stock  

USD 170.38  0.72  0.42%

Apple probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Apple Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Apple time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Apple odds to be computed. Check also Apple Backtesting, Apple Valuation, Apple Correlation, Apple Hype Analysis, Apple Volatility, Apple History as well as Apple Performance
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Apple Target Price Odds to finish below 155.15

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 170.38 30 days 155.15  more than 94.0% about 6.18%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Apple to drop to $ 155.15  or more in 30 days from now is about 6.18%. Probability of Apple Inc price to stay between $ 155.15  and its current price of $170.38 at the end of the 30-day period is about 62.68%.
Given the investment horizon of 30 days, Apple Inc has beta of -0.3957 . This suggests as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Apple are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, Apple Inc is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Apple Inc has an alpha of 0.3290516481863637 implying that it can potentially generate 0.3290516481863637% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
6.0%
Odds to drop to $ 155.15  or more in 30 days
 Apple Price Density 
 
 Prices     
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.33
βBeta against DOW=0.4
σ
Overall volatility
=7.51
 IrInformation ratio =0.19