Apple Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 159.0192

Apple Inc -- USA Stock  

USD 172.99  0.56  0.32%

Apple probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Apple Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Apple time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Apple odds to be computed. Check also Apple Backtesting, Apple Valuation, Apple Correlation, Apple Hype Analysis, Apple Volatility, Apple History as well as Apple Performance
 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Apple Target Price Odds to finish below 159.0192

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 172.99 30 days 159.02  about 88.42% about 11.45%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Apple to drop to $ 159.02  or more in 30 days from now is about 11.45%. Probability of Apple Inc price to stay between $ 159.02  and its current price of $172.99 at the end of the 30-day period is about 64.83%.
Given the investment horizon of 30 days, Apple has beta of 0.8702 . This suggests Apple Inc market returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market benchmark goes up or down, Apple is expected to follow. Additionally Apple Inc has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
11.0%
Odds to drop to $ 159.02  or more in 30 days
 Apple Price Density 
 
 Prices     
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.05
β
Beta against DOW=0.87
σ
Overall volatility
=7.29
Ir
Information ratio =0.01