Apple Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 159.0192

Apple Inc -- USA Stock  

USD 174.13  0.99  0.57%

Apple probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Apple Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Apple time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Apple odds to be computed. Check also Apple Backtesting, Apple Valuation, Apple Correlation, Apple Hype Analysis, Apple Volatility, Apple History as well as Apple Performance
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Apple Target Price Odds to finish below 159.0192

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 174.13 30 days 159.02  about 92.72% about 7.18%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Apple to drop to $ 159.02  or more in 30 days from now is about 7.18%. Probability of Apple Inc price to stay between $ 159.02  and its current price of $174.13 at the end of the 30-day period is about 73.03%.
Given the investment horizon of 30 days, the stock has beta coefficient of 1.2583 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are expected to be negative, Apple will likely underperform. Additionally Apple Inc has an alpha of 0.4025259241409092 implying that it can potentially generate 0.4025259241409092% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
7.0%
Odds to drop to $ 159.02  or more in 30 days
 Apple Price Density 
 
 Prices     
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.4
βBeta against DOW=1.26
σ
Overall volatility
=6.55
 IrInformation ratio =0.32