Apple Probability of Target Price Finishing Over 159.0192

Apple Inc -- USA Stock  

USD 171.85  0.65  0.38%

Apple probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Apple Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Apple time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Apple odds to be computed. Check also Apple Backtesting, Apple Valuation, Apple Correlation, Apple Hype Analysis, Apple Volatility, Apple History as well as Apple Performance
 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Apple Target Price Odds to finish over 159.0192

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 171.85 30 days 159.02  about 89.58% about 10.29%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Apple to stay above $ 159.02  in 30 days from now is about 89.58%. Probability of Apple Inc price to stay between $ 159.02  and its current price of $171.85 at the end of the 30-day period is about 68.33%.
Given the investment horizon of 30 days, Apple has beta of 0.8852 . This suggests Apple Inc market returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market benchmark goes up or down, Apple is expected to follow. Additionally Apple Inc has an alpha of 0.08792164507272737 implying that it can potentially generate 0.08792164507272737% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
90.0%
Odds to stay above $ 159.02  in 30 days
 Apple Price Density 
 
 Prices     
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.087922
β
Beta against DOW=0.89
σ
Overall volatility
=6.24
Ir
Information ratio =0.053696