Apple Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 172.7

Apple Inc -- USA Stock  

USD 177.09  1.81  1.03%

Apple probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Apple Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Apple time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Apple odds to be computed. Check also Apple Backtesting, Apple Valuation, Apple Correlation, Apple Hype Analysis, Apple Volatility, Apple History as well as Apple Performance
 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
Refresh Odds

Apple Target Price Odds to finish below 172.7

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 177.09 30 days 172.7  about 63.47% about 35.7%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Apple to drop to $ 172.7  or more in 30 days from now is about 35.7%. Probability of Apple Inc price to stay between $ 172.7  and its current price of $177.09 at the end of the 30-day period is about 60.07%.
Given the investment horizon of 30 days, the stock has beta coefficient of 1.6185 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are expected to be negative, Apple will likely underperform. Additionally Apple Inc has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
36.0%
Odds to drop to $ 172.7  or more in 30 days
 Apple Price Density 
 
 Prices     
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.23
β
Beta against DOW=1.62
σ
Overall volatility
=2.02
Ir
Information ratio =0.1