Apple Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 172.7

Apple Inc -- USA Stock  

USD 175.30  4.03  2.35%

Apple probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Apple Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Apple time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Apple odds to be computed. Check also Apple Backtesting, Apple Valuation, Apple Correlation, Apple Hype Analysis, Apple Volatility, Apple History as well as Apple Performance
 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Apple Target Price Odds to finish below 172.7

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 175.30 30 days 172.70  about 90.17% about 9.56%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Apple to drop to $ 172.70  or more in 30 days from now is about 9.56%. Probability of Apple Inc price to stay between $ 172.70  and its current price of $175.3 at the end of the 30-day period is about 24.81%.
Given the investment horizon of 30 days, Apple Inc has beta of -0.2631 . This suggests as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Apple are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, Apple Inc is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Apple Inc has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
Odds to drop to $ 172.70  or more in 30 days
 Apple Price Density 
Current Price   Target Price   
Alpha over DOW
Beta against DOW=0.26
Overall volatility
Information ratio =0.045479