Apple Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 174.67

AAPL -- USA Stock  

USD 217.66  2.37  1.10%

Apple probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Apple performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Apple time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Apple odds to be computed. Check also Apple Backtesting, Apple Valuation, Apple Correlation, Apple Hype Analysis, Apple Volatility, Apple History as well as Apple Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Apple Target Price Odds to finish below 174.67

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 174.67  or more in 30 days
 217.66 30 days 174.67  NEAR 1%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Apple to drop to $ 174.67  or more in 30 days from now is near 1% (This Apple probability density function shows the probability of Apple Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Apple price to stay between $ 174.67  and its current price of $217.66 at the end of the 30-day period is about 24.2%.
Given the investment horizon of 30 days, Apple has beta of 0.1265 . This suggests as returns on market go up, Apple average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Apple will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Apple has an alpha of 0.0296 implying that it can potentially generate 0.0296% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Apple Price Density 
 
      
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.029615
β
Beta against DOW=0.13
σ
Overall volatility
=4.55
Ir
Information ratio =0.06

Apple Alerts

Apple Alerts and Suggestions

Apple generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
Apple has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations
About 61.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On August 10, 2018 Apple paid $ 0.73 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Exercise or conversion by Oppenheimer Peter of 1200 shares of Apple subject to Rule 16b-3

Price Density Drivers

Apple Health Indicators

Shares Percent Shares Out0.98%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate2.62
Short Percent Of Float0.94%
Float Shares4.57B
Shares Short Prior Month37.27M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day32.68M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month26.92M
Date Short InterestAugust 31, 2018
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield1.19%
Check also Apple Backtesting, Apple Valuation, Apple Correlation, Apple Hype Analysis, Apple Volatility, Apple History as well as Apple Performance. Please also try Chance of Distress module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
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