Apple Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 174.67

Apple Inc -- USA Stock  

USD 170.15  2.99  1.73%

Apple probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Apple Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Apple time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Apple odds to be computed. Check also Apple Backtesting, Apple Valuation, Apple Correlation, Apple Hype Analysis, Apple Volatility, Apple History as well as Apple Performance
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Apple Target Price Odds to finish below 174.67

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 170.15 30 days 174.67  about 17.48% about 82.33%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Apple to stay under $ 174.67  after 30 days from now is about 82.33%. Probability of Apple Inc price to stay between its current price of $ 170.15  and $ 174.67  at the end of the 30-day period is about 22.84%.
Given the investment horizon of 30 days, Apple has beta of 0.3085 . This suggests as returns on market go up, Apple average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Apple Inc will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Apple Inc has an alpha of 0.4592911209318183 implying that it can potentially generate 0.4592911209318183% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
82.0%
Odds to stay under $ 174.67  after 30 days
 Apple Price Density 
 
 Prices     
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.46
βBeta against DOW=0.31
σ
Overall volatility
=6.55
 IrInformation ratio =0.33