|Current Price||Horizon||Target Price||Odds to drop to $ 174.67 or more in 30 days|
| 217.66 ||30 days|| 174.67 || NEAR 1%|
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Apple to drop to $ 174.67 or more in 30 days from now is near 1% (This Apple probability density function shows the probability of Apple Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Apple price to stay between $ 174.67 and its current price of $217.66 at the end of the 30-day period is about 24.2%.
Given the investment horizon of 30 days, Apple has beta of 0.1265 . This suggests as returns on market go up, Apple average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Apple will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Apple has an alpha of 0.0296 implying that it can potentially generate 0.0296% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
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