Apple Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 174.67

Apple Inc -- USA Stock  

USD 171.07  4.49  2.55%

Apple probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Apple Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Apple time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Apple odds to be computed. Check also Apple Backtesting, Apple Valuation, Apple Correlation, Apple Hype Analysis, Apple Volatility, Apple History as well as Apple Performance
 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
Refresh Odds

Apple Target Price Odds to finish below 174.67

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 171.07 30 days 174.67  about 9.97% about 89.89%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Apple to stay under $ 174.67  after 30 days from now is about 89.89%. Probability of Apple Inc price to stay between its current price of $ 171.07  and $ 174.67  at the end of the 30-day period is about 14.34%.
Given the investment horizon of 30 days, Apple Inc has beta of -0.5092 . This suggests as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Apple are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, Apple Inc is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Apple Inc has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
90.0%
Odds to stay under $ 174.67  after 30 days
 Apple Price Density 
 
 Prices     
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.1
β
Beta against DOW=0.51
σ
Overall volatility
=6.13
Ir
Information ratio =0.16