Apple Probability of Target Price Finishing Over 174.81

AAPL -- USA Stock  

USD 220.74  2.37  1.09%

Apple probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Apple performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Apple time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Apple odds to be computed. Check also Apple Backtesting, Apple Valuation, Apple Correlation, Apple Hype Analysis, Apple Volatility, Apple History as well as Apple Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Apple Target Price Odds to finish over 174.81

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 174.81  in 30 days
 220.74 30 days 174.81  CLOSE TO 99%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Apple to stay above $ 174.81  in 30 days from now is close to 99% (This Apple probability density function shows the probability of Apple Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Apple price to stay between $ 174.81  and its current price of $220.74 at the end of the 30-day period is about 50.12%.
Given the investment horizon of 30 days, Apple has beta of 0.2868 . This suggests as returns on market go up, Apple average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Apple will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Apple has an alpha of 0.0482 implying that it can potentially generate 0.0482% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Apple Price Density 
 
      
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.048219
β
Beta against DOW=0.29
σ
Overall volatility
=4.67
Ir
Information ratio =0.0099

Apple Alerts

Apple Alerts and Suggestions

Apple has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations
About 61.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On August 10, 2018 Apple paid $ 0.73 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from www.thestreet.com: Exercise or conversion by Serlet Bertrand of 10000 shares of Apple subject to Rule 16b-3

Price Density Drivers

Apple Health Indicators

Shares Percent Shares Out0.87%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate2.62
Short Percent Of Float0.83%
Float Shares4.57B
Shares Short Prior Month42.85M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day38.58M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month26.54M
Date Short InterestAugust 15, 2018
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield1.16%
Check also Apple Backtesting, Apple Valuation, Apple Correlation, Apple Hype Analysis, Apple Volatility, Apple History as well as Apple Performance. Please also try Portfolio Quick Import module to import or update all your transactions via one easy-to-use interface.
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