Apple Probability of Target Price Finishing Over 174.81

AAPL -- USA Stock  

USD 170.95  1.85  1.09%

Apple probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Apple performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Apple time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Apple odds to be computed. Check also Apple Backtesting, Apple Valuation, Apple Correlation, Apple Hype Analysis, Apple Volatility, Apple History as well as Apple Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Apple Target Price Odds to finish over 174.81

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 174.81  or more in 30 days
 170.95 30 days 174.81  ABOUT 87.16%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Apple to move over $ 174.81  or more in 30 days from now is about 87.16% (This Apple probability density function shows the probability of Apple Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Apple price to stay between its current price of $ 170.95  and $ 174.81  at the end of the 30-day period is under 4%.
Given the investment horizon of 30 days, the stock has beta coefficient of 1.5107 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are expected to be negative, Apple will likely underperform. Additionally Apple has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
 Apple Price Density 
      Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.43
β
Beta against DOW=1.51
σ
Overall volatility
=19.49
Ir
Information ratio =0.18

Apple Alerts

Apple Alerts and Suggestions

Apple generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
Apple has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations
About 61.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies

Price Density Drivers

Apple Health Indicators

Shares Percent Shares Out0.88%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate2.72
Short Percent Of Float0.82%
Float Shares4.49B
Shares Short Prior Month40.15M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day39.04M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month38.83M
Date Short InterestNovember 15, 2018
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield1.61%
Check also Apple Backtesting, Apple Valuation, Apple Correlation, Apple Hype Analysis, Apple Volatility, Apple History as well as Apple Performance. Please also try Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.
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