AllianceBernstein Probability of Target Price

AllianceBernstein Holding L P -- USA Stock  

USD 25.35  0.25  1%

AllianceBernstein probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of AllianceBernstein Holding L P performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify AllianceBernstein time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like AllianceBernstein odds to be computed. Check also AllianceBernstein Backtesting, AllianceBernstein Valuation, AllianceBernstein Correlation, AllianceBernstein Hype Analysis, AllianceBernstein Volatility, AllianceBernstein History as well as AllianceBernstein Performance
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Odds Analysis

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 25.35 30 days 24.65  about 57.07% about 42.28%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of AllianceBernstein to drop to $ 24.65  or more in 30 days from now is about 42.28%. Probability of AllianceBernstein Ho price to stay between $ 24.65  and its current price of $25.35 at the end of the 30-day period is about 51.5%.
Allowing for the 30-days total investment horizon, AllianceBernstein has beta of 0.3397 . This suggests as returns on market go up, AllianceBernstein average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding AllianceBernstein Holding L P will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally AllianceBernstein Holding L P has an alpha of 0.18942924645909093 implying that it can potentially generate 0.18942924645909093% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
42.0%
Odds to drop to $ 24.65  or more in 30 days
 AllianceBernstein Price Density 
 
 Prices     
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.19
βBeta against DOW=0.34
σ
Overall volatility
=0.4
 IrInformation ratio =0.083283