Ace Hardware (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 1320.0

ACES Stock  IDR 890.00  20.00  2.20%   
Ace Hardware's future price is the expected price of Ace Hardware instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Ace Hardware Indonesia performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Ace Hardware Backtesting, Ace Hardware Valuation, Ace Hardware Correlation, Ace Hardware Hype Analysis, Ace Hardware Volatility, Ace Hardware History as well as Ace Hardware Performance.
  
Please specify Ace Hardware's target price for which you would like Ace Hardware odds to be computed.

Ace Hardware Target Price Odds to finish over 1320.0

The tendency of Ace Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over  1,320  or more in 90 days
 890.00 90 days 1,320 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ace Hardware to move over  1,320  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Ace Hardware Indonesia probability density function shows the probability of Ace Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ace Hardware Indonesia price to stay between its current price of  890.00  and  1,320  at the end of the 90-day period is about 7.51 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Ace Hardware has a beta of 0.24. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Ace Hardware average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Ace Hardware Indonesia will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Ace Hardware Indonesia has an alpha of 0.317, implying that it can generate a 0.32 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Ace Hardware Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Ace Hardware

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ace Hardware Indonesia. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ace Hardware's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
887.67890.00892.33
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
888.17890.50892.83
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
921.28923.61925.95
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
771.23855.00938.77
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Ace Hardware. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Ace Hardware's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Ace Hardware's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Ace Hardware Indonesia.

Ace Hardware Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ace Hardware is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ace Hardware's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ace Hardware Indonesia, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ace Hardware within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.32
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.24
σ
Overall volatility
55.54
Ir
Information ratio 0.1

Ace Hardware Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Ace Hardware for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Ace Hardware Indonesia can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 60.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders

Ace Hardware Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Ace Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Ace Hardware's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ace Hardware's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding17.1 B
Cash And Short Term Investments2.6 T

Ace Hardware Technical Analysis

Ace Hardware's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ace Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ace Hardware Indonesia. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ace Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Ace Hardware Predictive Forecast Models

Ace Hardware's time-series forecasting models is one of many Ace Hardware's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ace Hardware's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Ace Hardware Indonesia

Checking the ongoing alerts about Ace Hardware for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Ace Hardware Indonesia help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 60.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Check out Ace Hardware Backtesting, Ace Hardware Valuation, Ace Hardware Correlation, Ace Hardware Hype Analysis, Ace Hardware Volatility, Ace Hardware History as well as Ace Hardware Performance.
You can also try the ETF Categories module to list of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments.

Complementary Tools for Ace Stock analysis

When running Ace Hardware's price analysis, check to measure Ace Hardware's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ace Hardware is operating at the current time. Most of Ace Hardware's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ace Hardware's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ace Hardware's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ace Hardware to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Ace Hardware's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ace Hardware is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ace Hardware's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.