Adams Resources Probability of Target Price

Adams Resources Energy Inc -- USA Stock  

USD 43.37  0.34  0.78%

Adams Resources probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Adams Resources Energy Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Adams Resources time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Adams Resources odds to be computed. Check also Adams Resources Backtesting, Adams Resources Valuation, Adams Resources Correlation, Adams Resources Hype Analysis, Adams Resources Volatility, Adams Resources History as well as Adams Resources Performance
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Odds Analysis

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 43.37 30 days 42  about 51.82% about 47.99%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Adams Resources to drop to $ 42  or more in 30 days from now is about 47.99%. Probability of Adams Resources Energy price to stay between $ 42  and its current price of $43.37 at the end of the 30-day period is about 17.65%.
Allowing for the 30-days total investment horizon, Adams Resources Energy Inc has beta of -2.7768 . This suggests as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding Adams Resources Energy Inc are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, Adams Resources is expected to outperform its benchmark. Moreover Adams Resources Energy Inc has an alpha of 1.2072 implying that it can potentially generate 1.2072% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
48.0%
Odds to drop to $ 42  or more in 30 days
 Adams Resources Price Density 
 
 Prices     
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over DOW
= 1.21 
βBeta against DOW=(2.78) 
σ
Overall volatility
= 3.02 
 IrInformation ratio = 0.33