Agnico Eagle Mines Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 55.41

AEM Stock  USD 59.65  1.80  3.11%   
Agnico Eagle's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Agnico Eagle Mines. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Agnico Eagle based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Agnico Eagle Mines over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $60.0 is a CALL option contract on Agnico Eagle's common stock with a strick price of 60.0 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 15:56:33 for $0.75 and, as of today, has 22 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.7, and an ask price of $0.75. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 27.23. View All Agnico options

Closest to current price Agnico long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Agnico Eagle's future price is the expected price of Agnico Eagle instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Agnico Eagle Mines performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Agnico Eagle Backtesting, Agnico Eagle Valuation, Agnico Eagle Correlation, Agnico Eagle Hype Analysis, Agnico Eagle Volatility, Agnico Eagle History as well as Agnico Eagle Performance.
  
At this time, Agnico Eagle's Price To Sales Ratio is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 28th of March 2024, Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is likely to grow to 0.30, while Price Book Value Ratio is likely to drop 1.32. Please specify Agnico Eagle's target price for which you would like Agnico Eagle odds to be computed.

Agnico Eagle Target Price Odds to finish below 55.41

The tendency of Agnico Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 55.41  or more in 90 days
 59.65 90 days 55.41 
about 88.75
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Agnico Eagle to drop to $ 55.41  or more in 90 days from now is about 88.75 (This Agnico Eagle Mines probability density function shows the probability of Agnico Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Agnico Eagle Mines price to stay between $ 55.41  and its current price of $59.65 at the end of the 90-day period is about 10.41 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.88 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Agnico Eagle will likely underperform. Additionally Agnico Eagle Mines has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Agnico Eagle Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Agnico Eagle

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Agnico Eagle Mines. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Agnico Eagle's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
56.0858.0059.92
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
54.4056.3258.24
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
53.1955.1157.02
Details
20 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
60.7866.7974.14
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Agnico Eagle. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Agnico Eagle's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Agnico Eagle's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Agnico Eagle Mines.

Agnico Eagle Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Agnico Eagle is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Agnico Eagle's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Agnico Eagle Mines, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Agnico Eagle within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.13
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.88
σ
Overall volatility
3.48
Ir
Information ratio -0.0093

Agnico Eagle Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Agnico Eagle for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Agnico Eagle Mines can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Agnico Eagle Mines is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
About 72.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 15th of March 2024 Agnico Eagle paid $ 0.4 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from zacks.com: Barrick Looks for Gold and Copper Opportunities in DRC

Agnico Eagle Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Agnico Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Agnico Eagle's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Agnico Eagle's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding489.9 M
Cash And Short Term Investments347.1 M

Agnico Eagle Technical Analysis

Agnico Eagle's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Agnico Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Agnico Eagle Mines. In general, you should focus on analyzing Agnico Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Agnico Eagle Predictive Forecast Models

Agnico Eagle's time-series forecasting models is one of many Agnico Eagle's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Agnico Eagle's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Agnico Eagle Mines

Checking the ongoing alerts about Agnico Eagle for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Agnico Eagle Mines help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Agnico Eagle Mines is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
About 72.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 15th of March 2024 Agnico Eagle paid $ 0.4 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from zacks.com: Barrick Looks for Gold and Copper Opportunities in DRC
When determining whether Agnico Eagle Mines is a strong investment it is important to analyze Agnico Eagle's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Agnico Eagle's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Agnico Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Agnico Eagle Backtesting, Agnico Eagle Valuation, Agnico Eagle Correlation, Agnico Eagle Hype Analysis, Agnico Eagle Volatility, Agnico Eagle History as well as Agnico Eagle Performance.
Note that the Agnico Eagle Mines information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Agnico Eagle's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.

Complementary Tools for Agnico Stock analysis

When running Agnico Eagle's price analysis, check to measure Agnico Eagle's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Agnico Eagle is operating at the current time. Most of Agnico Eagle's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Agnico Eagle's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Agnico Eagle's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Agnico Eagle to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Agnico Eagle's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Agnico Eagle. If investors know Agnico will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Agnico Eagle listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
1.431
Dividend Share
1.6
Earnings Share
3.95
Revenue Per Share
13.56
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.269
The market value of Agnico Eagle Mines is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Agnico that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Agnico Eagle's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Agnico Eagle's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Agnico Eagle's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Agnico Eagle's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Agnico Eagle's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Agnico Eagle is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Agnico Eagle's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.