First Majestic Silver Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 6.48

AG Stock  USD 5.58  0.33  6.29%   
First Majestic's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on First Majestic Silver. Implied volatility approximates the future value of First Majestic based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in First Majestic Silver over a specific time period. For example, 2024-03-28 CALL at $5.5 is a CALL option contract on First Majestic's common stock with a strick price of 5.5 expiring on 2024-03-28. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 15:56:16 for $0.11 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.11, and an ask price of $0.13. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 53.44. View All First options

Closest to current price First long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

First Majestic's future price is the expected price of First Majestic instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of First Majestic Silver performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out First Majestic Backtesting, First Majestic Valuation, First Majestic Correlation, First Majestic Hype Analysis, First Majestic Volatility, First Majestic History as well as First Majestic Performance.
  
At this time, First Majestic's Price To Book Ratio is most likely to decrease significantly in the upcoming years. The First Majestic's current Price Cash Flow Ratio is estimated to increase to 58.17, while Price To Sales Ratio is projected to decrease to 2.82. Please specify First Majestic's target price for which you would like First Majestic odds to be computed.

First Majestic Target Price Odds to finish below 6.48

The tendency of First Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 6.48  after 90 days
 5.58 90 days 6.48 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of First Majestic to stay under $ 6.48  after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This First Majestic Silver probability density function shows the probability of First Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of First Majestic Silver price to stay between its current price of $ 5.58  and $ 6.48  at the end of the 90-day period is about 19.34 .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 3.84 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, First Majestic will likely underperform. Additionally First Majestic Silver has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   First Majestic Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for First Majestic

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Majestic Silver. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Majestic's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
2.065.589.10
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
2.916.439.95
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
1.545.078.59
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
8.899.7710.84
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as First Majestic. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against First Majestic's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, First Majestic's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in First Majestic Silver.

First Majestic Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. First Majestic is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the First Majestic's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold First Majestic Silver, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of First Majestic within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.61
β
Beta against NYSE Composite3.84
σ
Overall volatility
0.56
Ir
Information ratio -0.08

First Majestic Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of First Majestic for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for First Majestic Silver can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
First Majestic generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
First Majestic has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The company generated the yearly revenue of 584.32 M. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (137.59 M) with gross profit of 140.6 M.
First Majestic has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Latest headline from news.google.com: FIRST MAJESTIC SILVER CORP. Trade Ideas SWBFMV TradingView - TradingView

First Majestic Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of First Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential First Majestic's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. First Majestic's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding282.3 M
Cash And Short Term Investments187 M

First Majestic Technical Analysis

First Majestic's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. First Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of First Majestic Silver. In general, you should focus on analyzing First Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

First Majestic Predictive Forecast Models

First Majestic's time-series forecasting models is one of many First Majestic's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary First Majestic's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about First Majestic Silver

Checking the ongoing alerts about First Majestic for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for First Majestic Silver help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
First Majestic generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
First Majestic has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The company generated the yearly revenue of 584.32 M. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (137.59 M) with gross profit of 140.6 M.
First Majestic has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Latest headline from news.google.com: FIRST MAJESTIC SILVER CORP. Trade Ideas SWBFMV TradingView - TradingView
When determining whether First Majestic Silver is a strong investment it is important to analyze First Majestic's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact First Majestic's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding First Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out First Majestic Backtesting, First Majestic Valuation, First Majestic Correlation, First Majestic Hype Analysis, First Majestic Volatility, First Majestic History as well as First Majestic Performance.
Note that the First Majestic Silver information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other First Majestic's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.

Complementary Tools for First Stock analysis

When running First Majestic's price analysis, check to measure First Majestic's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Majestic is operating at the current time. Most of First Majestic's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Majestic's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Majestic's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Majestic to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is First Majestic's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First Majestic. If investors know First will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about First Majestic listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
2.359
Dividend Share
0.02
Earnings Share
(0.48)
Revenue Per Share
2.032
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.08)
The market value of First Majestic Silver is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of First that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of First Majestic's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is First Majestic's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because First Majestic's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect First Majestic's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Majestic's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Majestic is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Majestic's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.