Agenus Inc Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1.69
| AGEN Stock | USD 5.31 0.34 6.84% |
Closest to current price Agenus long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Agenus |
Agenus Target Price Odds to finish below 1.69
The tendency of Agenus Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 1.69 or more in 90 days |
| 5.31 | 90 days | 1.69 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Agenus to drop to $ 1.69 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Agenus Inc probability density function shows the probability of Agenus Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Agenus Inc price to stay between $ 1.69 and its current price of $5.31 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 3.36 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Agenus will likely underperform. Additionally Agenus Inc has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Agenus Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Agenus
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Agenus Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Agenus' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Agenus Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Agenus is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Agenus' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Agenus Inc, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Agenus within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -1.28 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 3.36 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.44 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.15 |
Agenus Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Agenus for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Agenus Inc can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Agenus Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Agenus Inc has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Agenus Inc has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Agenus Inchas 47,723,908 shares shorted by Agenus investors is about 200% of outstending shares | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 156.31 M. Net Loss for the year was (245.76 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 82.61 M. | |
| Agenus Inc currently holds about 218.23 M in cash with (224.2 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.72. | |
| Agenus Inc has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 59.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from businesswire.com: SaponiQx and InvivoGen Announce Agreement for SaponiQx to Supply Cultured Plant Cell QS-21 Adjuvant |
Agenus Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Agenus Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Agenus' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Agenus' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 357.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 76.1 M |
Agenus Technical Analysis
Agenus' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Agenus Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Agenus Inc. In general, you should focus on analyzing Agenus Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Agenus Predictive Forecast Models
Agenus' time-series forecasting models is one of many Agenus' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Agenus' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Agenus Inc
Checking the ongoing alerts about Agenus for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Agenus Inc help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Agenus Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Agenus Inc has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Agenus Inc has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Agenus Inchas 47,723,908 shares shorted by Agenus investors is about 200% of outstending shares | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 156.31 M. Net Loss for the year was (245.76 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 82.61 M. | |
| Agenus Inc currently holds about 218.23 M in cash with (224.2 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.72. | |
| Agenus Inc has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 59.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from businesswire.com: SaponiQx and InvivoGen Announce Agreement for SaponiQx to Supply Cultured Plant Cell QS-21 Adjuvant |
Check out Agenus Backtesting, Agenus Valuation, Agenus Correlation, Agenus Hype Analysis, Agenus Volatility, Agenus History as well as Agenus Performance. Note that the Agenus Inc information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Agenus' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Pair Correlation module to compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments.
Complementary Tools for Agenus Stock analysis
When running Agenus' price analysis, check to measure Agenus' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Agenus is operating at the current time. Most of Agenus' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Agenus' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Agenus' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Agenus to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Agenus' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Agenus. If investors know Agenus will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Agenus listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (13.80) | Revenue Per Share 8.735 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 1.952 | Return On Assets (0.28) | Return On Equity (12.79) |
The market value of Agenus Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Agenus that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Agenus' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Agenus' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Agenus' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Agenus' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Agenus' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Agenus is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Agenus' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.