American International Group Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 51.45

AIG Stock  USD 78.34  0.95  1.23%   
American International's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on American International Group. Implied volatility approximates the future value of American International based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in American International Group over a specific time period. For example, 2024-03-28 CALL at $78.0 is a CALL option contract on American International's common stock with a strick price of 78.0 expiring on 2024-03-28. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 15:49:10 for $0.54 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.45, and an ask price of $0.6. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 20.88. View All American options

Closest to current price American long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

American International's future price is the expected price of American International instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of American International Group performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out American International Backtesting, American International Valuation, American International Correlation, American International Hype Analysis, American International Volatility, American International History as well as American International Performance.
  
At this time, American International's Price Book Value Ratio is most likely to increase significantly in the upcoming years. The American International's current Price To Operating Cash Flows Ratio is estimated to increase to about 8.3 M, while Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is forecasted to increase to (207.1 K). Please specify American International's target price for which you would like American International odds to be computed.

American International Target Price Odds to finish below 51.45

The tendency of American Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 51.45  or more in 90 days
 78.34 90 days 51.45 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of American International to drop to $ 51.45  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This American International Group probability density function shows the probability of American Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of American International price to stay between $ 51.45  and its current price of $78.34 at the end of the 90-day period is about 99.0 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon American International has a beta of 0.57. This suggests as returns on the market go up, American International average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding American International Group will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally American International Group has an alpha of 0.1787, implying that it can generate a 0.18 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   American International Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for American International

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
77.4078.4479.48
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
70.5180.5181.55
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
76.2177.2578.29
Details
21 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
65.5872.0780.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as American International. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against American International's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, American International's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in American International.

American International Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. American International is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the American International's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold American International Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of American International within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.18
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.57
σ
Overall volatility
3.43
Ir
Information ratio 0.12

American International Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of American International for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for American International can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company has 22.39 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.74, which is OK given its current industry classification. American International has a current ratio of 0.77, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist American International until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, American International's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like American International sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for American to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about American International's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Over 93.0% of American International shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: EverQuote Up 3.7 percent Since Last Earnings Report Can It Continue

American International Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of American Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential American International's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American International's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding725.2 T
Cash And Short Term Investments251.1 B

American International Technical Analysis

American International's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. American Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of American International Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing American Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

American International Predictive Forecast Models

American International's time-series forecasting models is one of many American International's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary American International's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about American International

Checking the ongoing alerts about American International for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for American International help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company has 22.39 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.74, which is OK given its current industry classification. American International has a current ratio of 0.77, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist American International until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, American International's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like American International sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for American to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about American International's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Over 93.0% of American International shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: EverQuote Up 3.7 percent Since Last Earnings Report Can It Continue
When determining whether American International is a strong investment it is important to analyze American International's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact American International's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding American Stock, refer to the following important reports:

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When running American International's price analysis, check to measure American International's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American International is operating at the current time. Most of American International's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American International's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American International's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American International to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is American International's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American International. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American International listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.84)
Dividend Share
1.4
Earnings Share
4.98
Revenue Per Share
64.882
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.13)
The market value of American International is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American International's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American International's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American International's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American International's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American International's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American International is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American International's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.