Air Lease Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 30.84
| AL Stock | USD 48.22 0.33 0.68% |
Closest to current price Air long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Air |
Air Lease Target Price Odds to finish below 30.84
The tendency of Air Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 30.84 or more in 90 days |
| 48.22 | 90 days | 30.84 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Air Lease to drop to $ 30.84 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Air Lease probability density function shows the probability of Air Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Air Lease price to stay between $ 30.84 and its current price of $48.22 at the end of the 90-day period is about 84.51 .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon Air Lease has a beta of 0.12. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Air Lease average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Air Lease will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Air Lease has an alpha of 0.2624, implying that it can generate a 0.26 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Air Lease Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Air Lease
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Air Lease. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Air Lease's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Air Lease Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Air Lease is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Air Lease's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Air Lease, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Air Lease within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.26 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.12 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.96 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.13 |
Air Lease Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Air Lease for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Air Lease can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The company reports 19.18 B of total liabilities with total debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 2.85, which may imply that the company relies heavily on debt financing. Air Lease has a current ratio of 0.88, implying that it has not enough working capital to pay out debt commitments in time. Debt can assist Air Lease until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Air Lease's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Air Lease sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Air to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Air Lease's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Air Lease has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 91.0% of Air Lease shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 10th of April 2024 Air Lease paid $ 0.21 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Copa Holdings March Traffic Rises From 2023 Levels |
Air Lease Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Air Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Air Lease's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Air Lease's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 111.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 460.9 M |
Air Lease Technical Analysis
Air Lease's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Air Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Air Lease. In general, you should focus on analyzing Air Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Air Lease Predictive Forecast Models
Air Lease's time-series forecasting models is one of many Air Lease's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Air Lease's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Air Lease
Checking the ongoing alerts about Air Lease for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Air Lease help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The company reports 19.18 B of total liabilities with total debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 2.85, which may imply that the company relies heavily on debt financing. Air Lease has a current ratio of 0.88, implying that it has not enough working capital to pay out debt commitments in time. Debt can assist Air Lease until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Air Lease's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Air Lease sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Air to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Air Lease's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Air Lease has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 91.0% of Air Lease shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 10th of April 2024 Air Lease paid $ 0.21 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Copa Holdings March Traffic Rises From 2023 Levels |
Check out Air Lease Backtesting, Air Lease Valuation, Air Lease Correlation, Air Lease Hype Analysis, Air Lease Volatility, Air Lease History as well as Air Lease Performance. For more information on how to buy Air Stock please use our How to buy in Air Stock guide.You can also try the Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.
Complementary Tools for Air Stock analysis
When running Air Lease's price analysis, check to measure Air Lease's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Air Lease is operating at the current time. Most of Air Lease's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Air Lease's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Air Lease's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Air Lease to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Air Lease's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Air Lease. If investors know Air will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Air Lease listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.556 | Dividend Share 0.81 | Earnings Share 5.14 | Revenue Per Share 24.188 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.191 |
The market value of Air Lease is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Air that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Air Lease's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Air Lease's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Air Lease's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Air Lease's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Air Lease's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Air Lease is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Air Lease's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.